Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
27.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W41-24 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W30-24 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W28-10 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W35-24 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:70% | |
| 7 | 10/08 | W31-24 | |
| 9 | 10/23 | L24-27 | |
| 10 | 10/30 | L21-31 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:88% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:95% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:64% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:63% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 35.6% | 73.2% |
| 5-3 | 45.8% | 2.1% |
| 4-4 | 17.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 29.9% (+2.8%) | 5.3% (-21.7%) | |
| 25.5% (-1.6%) | 38.3% (+11.2%) | |
| 27.0% (-0.1%) | 27.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 26.8% (-0.2%) | 28.4% (+1.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Liberty
New Mexico State
UTEP
Jacksonville StateCCG: 41.7% • Scenario: 4.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LibertyCCG: 29.9% • Scenario: 88.5%
Data from 2024-11-03
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
73.0%
23.6%Any 1 loss
31.4%
28.8%
73.9%
10.2%
72.2%
1.3%
13.2%
3.0%
1.4%
14.3%Any 2 losses
7.9%
8.9%75.0%
0.5%13.6%
1.3%13.6%
0.2%2.0%
0.8%1.4%
6.1%Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03