Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-11-03
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 4-0 | 5-3 | 94.2% | |
| T1 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 4-0 | 6-2 | 69.0% | |
| 3 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 4-1 | 7-2 | 9.6% | |
| 4 |  LibertyLIB | 3-2 | 5-2 | 27.1% | |
| T5 |  Louisiana TechLT | 2-3 | 3-5 | <0.1% | |
| T5 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 2-3 | 3-6 | <0.1% | |
| T5 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 2-3 | 3-6 | <0.1% | |
| 8 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 1-3 | 1-7 | <0.1% | |
| 9 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 1-4 | 2-6 | - | |
| 10 |  UTEPUTEP | 1-5 | 1-8 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 94.2%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 94.2% (-0.0%) | 94.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 94.2% (+0.0%) | 94.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 94.3% (+0.1%) | 94.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 95.2% (+0.9%) | 88.3% (-5.9%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Middle TennesseeNew Mexico StateKennesaw StateJacksonville StateCCG: 95.6% • Scenario: 0.7%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Jacksonville StateCCG: 95.2% • Scenario: 86.2%
Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 99.6% | 70.0% | 9.6% | 94.2% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 99.5% | 51.4% | 8.0% | 69.0% |
| LibertyLIB | - | - | 73.2% | 2.1% | 27.1% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | - | 95.4% | 18.7% | 0.9% | 9.6% |
| Louisiana TechLT | - | - | - | 3.3% | <0.1% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | - | - | - | 2.4% | <0.1% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | - | - | - | 0.8% | <0.1% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | - | - | - | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | - | - | - | - |
| UTEPUTEP | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-11-03
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST(4-0) | 41.8% | 43.0% | 13.4% | 1.7% | <0.1% | - | - | - | 7.2 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(4-0) | 9.8% | 37.5% | 41.1% | 10.9% | 0.8% | - | - | - | 6.4 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(4-1) | - | 3.8% | 29.3% | 49.0% | 17.9% | - | - | - | 5.2 |
| LibertyLIB(3-2) | - | - | 35.6% | 45.8% | 17.0% | 1.6% | - | - | 5.2 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(2-3) | - | - | - | 2.9% | 36.1% | 46.9% | 14.0% | - | 3.3 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(2-3) | - | - | - | 2.3% | 23.0% | 52.1% | 22.6% | - | 3.0 |
| Louisiana TechLT(2-3) | - | - | - | 1.4% | 16.8% | 55.1% | 26.7% | - | 2.9 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(1-3) | - | - | - | 3.6% | 19.0% | 37.4% | 31.0% | 9.0% | 2.8 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 2.4% | 23.3% | 48.3% | 25.9% | 2.0 |
| UTEPUTEP(1-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 20.6% | 49.6% | 29.7% | 1.9 |
Data from 2024-11-03