Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
69.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L0-63 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-0 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W49-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W26-21 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L20-21 | |
| 7 | 10/10 | W44-17 | |
| 8 | 10/16 | W31-14 | |
| 10 | 10/30 | W31-14 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:88% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:84% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:36% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:37% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 9.8% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 37.5% | 99.5% |
| 6-2 | 41.1% | 51.4% |
| 5-3 | 10.9% | 8.0% |
| 4-4 | 0.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5% (-2.5%) | 88.1% (+19.1%) | |
| 72.0% (+3.0%) | 47.8% (-21.2%) | |
| 69.1% (+0.1%) | 69.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 68.8% (-0.2%) | 70.5% (+1.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Middle TennesseeWestern Kentucky
UTEP
Louisiana TechCCG: 93.7% • Scenario: 0.6%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Western KentuckyCCG: 72.0% • Scenario: 87.6%
Data from 2024-11-03
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
9.8%Any 1 loss
99.5%
37.5%
100.0%
17.9%100.0%
1.9%
100.0%
1.4%
99.0%
16.3%Any 2 losses
51.4%
41.1%100.0%
0.3%96.5%
3.1%95.1%
2.3%59.9%
2.5%59.2%
3.3%41.3%
29.6%Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03