Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W30-13 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L0-38 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W34-3 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W23-20 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L3-47 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W30-15 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L41-48 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | L16-47 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | W41-30 | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:74% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:36% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:91% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 24.0% | 28.8% |
| 5-3 | 53.8% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 20.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 1.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 8.3% (+1.4%) | 4.4% (-2.6%) | |
| 6.7% (-0.2%) | 12.2% (+5.3%) | |
| 6.5% (-0.5%) | 12.8% (+5.8%) | |
| 6.6% (-0.4%) | 9.2% (+2.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Northern Illinois
Kent State
Ball State
Central MichiganCCG: 32.1% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Northern IllinoisCCG: 8.3% • Scenario: 65.6%
Data from 2024-11-03
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
28.8%
24.0%Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03