Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
33.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W49-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-23 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W41-17 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L21-26 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W30-20 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L15-30 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W13-6 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | L26-41 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | W29-28 | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:91% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:58% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:89% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 46.8% | 71.6% |
| 5-3 | 44.5% | 0.7% |
| 4-4 | 8.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 37.7% (+3.9%) | 26.5% (-7.3%) | |
| 34.1% (+0.3%) | 26.9% (-7.0%) | |
| 33.3% (-0.5%) | 39.1% (+5.3%) | |
| 33.4% (-0.4%) | 35.7% (+1.9%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Western Michigan
Kent State
Ball State
Central MichiganCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Northern Illinois
OhioCCG: 38.0% • Scenario: 62.7%
Data from 2024-11-03
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
71.6%
46.8%Any 1 loss
1.6%
10.6%1.8%
4.7%
1.4%
5.9%Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03