Mid-American Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-11-03
Conference Standings
| 1 |  Western MichiganWMU | 4-0 | 5-3 | 25.6% | |
| T2 |  Miami (OH)M-OH | 3-1 | 4-4 | 58.0% | |
| T2 |  Bowling GreenBGSU | 3-1 | 4-4 | 38.1% | |
| T2 |  OhioOHIO | 3-1 | 5-3 | 37.4% | |
| T5 |  ToledoTOL | 3-2 | 6-3 | 33.8% | |
| T5 |  BuffaloBUF | 3-2 | 5-4 | 7.0% | |
| 7 |  Ball StateBALL | 2-2 | 3-5 | <0.1% | |
| 8 |  Eastern MichiganEMU | 2-3 | 5-4 | - | |
| T9 |  Northern IllinoisNIU | 1-3 | 4-4 | <0.1% | |
| T9 |  Central MichiganCMU | 1-3 | 3-5 | - | |
| 11 |  AkronAKR | 1-4 | 2-7 | - | |
| 12 |  Kent StateKENT | 0-4 | 0-8 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 58.0%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 61.7% (+3.7%) | 51.0% (-7.0%) | |
| 57.8% (-0.3%) | 63.4% (+5.3%) | |
| 60.9% (+2.9%) | 25.8% (-32.3%) | |
| 56.7% (-1.4%) | 65.0% (+7.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Northern IllinoisKent StateMiami (OH)Central MichiganCCG: 73.1% • Scenario: 0.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Northern IllinoisMiami (OH)CCG: 64.5% • Scenario: 60.2%
Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (OH)M-OH | - | 100% | 43.0% | 0.3% | 58.0% |
| Bowling GreenBGSU | - | 100% | 30.6% | 0.3% | 38.1% |
| OhioOHIO | - | 97.6% | 15.3% | 0.3% | 37.4% |
| ToledoTOL | - | - | 71.6% | 0.7% | 33.8% |
| Western MichiganWMU | 100% | 85.4% | 12.7% | <0.1% | 25.6% |
| BuffaloBUF | - | - | 28.8% | 0.1% | 7.0% |
| Northern IllinoisNIU | - | - | - | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| Ball StateBALL | - | - | 81.5% | 1.1% | <0.1% |
| AkronAKR | - | - | - | - | - |
| Central MichiganCMU | - | - | - | 2.3% | - |
| Eastern MichiganEMU | - | - | - | <0.1% | - |
| Kent StateKENT | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-11-03
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (OH)M-OH(3-1) | - | 38.3% | 45.8% | 14.8% | 1.1% | <0.1% | - | - | - | 6.2 |
| OhioOHIO(3-1) | - | 30.1% | 52.4% | 16.1% | 1.4% | <0.1% | - | - | - | 6.1 |
| Bowling GreenBGSU(3-1) | - | 23.5% | 47.5% | 24.3% | 4.5% | 0.3% | - | - | - | 5.9 |
| Western MichiganWMU(4-0) | 3.1% | 20.2% | 40.8% | 29.3% | 6.6% | - | - | - | - | 5.8 |
| ToledoTOL(3-2) | - | - | 46.8% | 44.5% | 8.3% | 0.4% | - | - | - | 5.4 |
| BuffaloBUF(3-2) | - | - | 24.0% | 53.8% | 20.6% | 1.6% | - | - | - | 5.0 |
| Northern IllinoisNIU(1-3) | - | - | - | 15.3% | 50.9% | 29.8% | 3.9% | 0.1% | - | 3.8 |
| Eastern MichiganEMU(2-3) | - | - | - | 4.6% | 29.8% | 47.4% | 18.2% | - | - | 3.2 |
| Ball StateBALL(2-2) | - | - | <0.1% | 0.8% | 8.6% | 37.4% | 53.1% | - | - | 2.6 |
| AkronAKR(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 0.5% | 11.0% | 60.2% | 28.4% | - | 1.8 |
| Central MichiganCMU(1-3) | - | - | - | <0.1% | 1.2% | 11.6% | 41.6% | 45.6% | - | 1.7 |
| Kent StateKENT(0-4) | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0.2% | 5.1% | 38.6% | 56.2% | 0.5 |
Data from 2024-11-03