Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
37.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L22-38 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W27-20 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W21-6 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L6-41 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W30-10 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W27-25 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L20-30 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W47-16 | |
| 11 | 11/06 | Win prob:95% | |
| 12 | 11/13 | Win prob:81% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:42% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:92% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 30.1% | 97.6% |
| 6-2 | 52.4% | 15.3% |
| 5-3 | 16.1% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 38.9% (+1.5%) | 34.6% (-2.9%) | |
| 38.8% (+1.4%) | 7.7% (-29.7%) | |
| 37.0% (-0.5%) | 42.9% (+5.5%) | |
| 35.7% (-1.7%) | 46.4% (+8.9%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Northern IllinoisOhio
Ball State
Central MichiganCCG: 54.3% • Scenario: 0.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Northern IllinoisOhioCCG: 40.3% • Scenario: 62.7%
Data from 2024-11-03
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
97.6%
30.1%Any 1 loss
15.3%
52.3%
34.8%
6.9%
23.8%
1.4%19.4%
2.6%
11.5%
41.4%Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03