Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-11-03
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Boise StateBOIS | 4-0 | 7-1 | 98.3% | |
| T1 |  Colorado StateCSU | 4-0 | 6-3 | 33.8% | |
| T3 |  UNLVUNLV | 2-1 | 6-2 | 60.9% | |
| T3 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 2-1 | 3-5 | 3.0% | |
| T5 |  San José StateSJSU | 3-2 | 5-3 | 2.0% | |
| T5 |  Fresno StateFRES | 3-2 | 5-4 | 1.3% | |
| 7 |  Hawai'iHAW | 2-2 | 4-5 | 0.7% | |
| T8 |  New MexicoUNM | 2-3 | 3-6 | - | |
| T8 |  WyomingWYO | 2-3 | 2-7 | - | |
| 10 |  Utah StateUSU | 1-3 | 2-6 | <0.1% | |
| T11 |  Air ForceAF | 0-4 | 1-7 | - | |
| T11 |  NevadaNEV | 0-4 | 3-7 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 98.3%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 98.4% (+0.1%) | 98.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 98.1% (-0.2%) | 98.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 98.2% (-0.1%) | 98.7% (+0.5%) | |
| 98.6% (+0.4%) | 98.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 81.3% (-16.9%) | 98.7% (+0.4%) | |
| 98.2% (-0.1%) | 98.6% (+0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Hawai'iUtah StateAir ForceCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Boise StateCCG: 98.7% • Scenario: 97.4%
Ways for to Clinch CCG Spot This Week
Hawai'iUtah StateAir ForceData from 2024-11-03
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 99.9% | 32.2% | - | 98.3% |
| UNLVUNLV | - | 90.3% | 35.9% | 0.3% | 60.9% |
| Colorado StateCSU | 100% | 47.7% | 1.1% | - | 33.8% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | - | 90.8% | 4.1% | <0.1% | 3.0% |
| San José StateSJSU | - | - | 26.2% | <0.1% | 2.0% |
| Fresno StateFRES | - | - | 2.1% | - | 1.3% |
| Hawai'iHAW | - | - | 20.2% | - | 0.7% |
| Utah StateUSU | - | - | - | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Air ForceAF | - | - | - | - | - |
| NevadaNEV | - | - | - | - | - |
| New MexicoUNM | - | - | - | - | - |
| WyomingWYO | - | - | - | <0.1% | - |
Data from 2024-11-03
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | 3-4 | 2-5 | 1-6 | 0-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS(4-0) | 69.1% | 28.4% | 2.4% | <0.1% | - | - | - | - | 6.7 |
| Colorado StateCSU(4-0) | 9.8% | 49.4% | 34.7% | 6.1% | - | - | - | - | 5.6 |
| UNLVUNLV(2-1) | - | 51.6% | 39.9% | 8.0% | 0.6% | <0.1% | - | - | 5.4 |
| Fresno StateFRES(3-2) | - | - | 61.4% | 34.0% | 4.6% | - | - | - | 4.6 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(2-1) | - | 2.1% | 26.4% | 42.4% | 24.4% | 4.7% | - | - | 4.0 |
| San José StateSJSU(3-2) | - | - | 7.8% | 41.6% | 50.6% | - | - | - | 3.6 |
| Hawai'iHAW(2-2) | - | - | 3.2% | 32.0% | 46.5% | 18.3% | - | - | 3.2 |
| New MexicoUNM(2-3) | - | - | - | 14.5% | 47.5% | 38.0% | - | - | 2.8 |
| WyomingWYO(2-3) | - | - | - | 2.7% | 36.5% | 60.8% | - | - | 2.4 |
| Utah StateUSU(1-3) | - | - | - | 4.2% | 25.5% | 45.7% | 24.6% | - | 2.1 |
| Air ForceAF(0-4) | - | - | - | - | 5.4% | 29.6% | 45.6% | 19.4% | 1.2 |
| NevadaNEV(0-4) | - | - | - | - | <0.1% | 2.7% | 43.0% | 54.3% | 0.5 |
Data from 2024-11-03