Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/24 | W35-14 | |
| 1 | 8/31 | L13-16 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L13-31 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W36-7 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | L24-27 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L7-28 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L10-42 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W34-13 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | W21-20 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:11% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:52% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:57% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | 3.2% | 20.2% |
| 4-3 | 32.0% | 0% |
| 3-4 | 46.5% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 18.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.7% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.5%) | 0.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.7%) | 6.0% (+5.3%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.1%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.0%) | 0.6% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
San José State
New MexicoHawai'i
Nevada
Air ForceCCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Hawai'iCCG: 6.0% • Scenario: 10.8%
Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03