Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
60.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W27-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W72-14 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W23-20 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W59-14 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L41-44 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W50-34 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W33-25 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | L24-29 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:89% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:91% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:66% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:96% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | 51.6% | 90.3% |
| 5-2 | 39.9% | 35.9% |
| 4-3 | 8.0% | 0.3% |
| 3-4 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 60.8% (-0.1%) | 61.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 60.8% (-0.1%) | 60.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 65.6% (+4.7%) | 21.9% (-39.0%) | |
| 60.9% (+0.0%) | 60.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 66.3% (+5.4%) | 60.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 61.1% (+0.2%) | 60.3% (-0.6%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Oregon State
Hawai'i
Utah State
Nevada
Air ForceCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UNLVCCG: 65.6% • Scenario: 89.2%
Data from 2024-11-03
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
90.3%
51.6%Any 1 loss
35.9%
39.9%40.2%
2.1%37.9%
6.2%
36.6%
26.7%
27.0%
4.8%Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03