Mountain West Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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50 of 97 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 8-1 Colorado StateCSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV	4.9%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV	4.6%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU 8-1 UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISColorado StateCSU	2.6%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 99.4%	2.0%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV	1.8%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 97.4% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 2.6%	1.7%
9-0 Colorado StateCSU 8-1 Boise StateBOIS UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISColorado StateCSU	1.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU 59.2% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 40.8%	1.1%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV	0.9%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 99.0%	0.8%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES	Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES	0.7%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 83.3% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 16.7%	0.7%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 97.0% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 3.0%	0.4%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 96.9% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 3.1%	0.4%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU 76.3% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 23.7%	0.4%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 82.6% Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU 17.4%	0.4%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 96.7% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 3.3%	0.4%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV	0.3%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 55.2% Boise StateBOISHawai'iHAW 44.8%	0.3%
8-1 UNLVUNLV 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 69.4% Fresno StateFRESUNLVUNLV 30.6%	0.2%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San José StateSJSU	Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES	0.2%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 76.2% Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU 23.8%	0.2%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV	0.2%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW	Boise StateBOISHawai'iHAW	0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 74.5% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 25.5%	0.1%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU San Diego StateSDSU	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU San Diego StateSDSU San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU 50.4% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 49.6%	0.1%
7-2 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain San José StateSJSUUNLVUNLV 91.7% Fresno StateFRESSan José StateSJSU 6.8% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 1.5%	0.1%
8-1 Colorado StateCSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Colorado StateCSUSan José StateSJSU 85.9% Colorado StateCSUUNLVUNLV 11.7% Colorado StateCSUFresno StateFRES 2.3%	0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU San José StateSJSU	Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU	0.1%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 8-1 Colorado StateCSU San Diego StateSDSU	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	0.1%
8-1 UNLVUNLV 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU	Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV	0.1%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 82.7% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 17.3%	0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 94.1% Boise StateBOISHawai'iHAW 5.9%	0.1%
8-1 UNLVUNLV 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU	Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV	<0.1%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Hawai'iHAW UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISHawai'iHAW 51.1% Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 48.9%	<0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 76.3% Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES 23.7%	<0.1%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV	<0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES	Boise StateBOISFresno StateFRES	<0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV 91.6% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 8.4%	<0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISUNLVUNLV	<0.1%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Fresno StateFRES San Diego StateSDSU	Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU	<0.1%
8-1 Colorado StateCSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	Colorado StateCSUSan José StateSJSU	<0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU San José StateSJSU	Boise StateBOISColorado StateCSU	<0.1%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Fresno StateFRES Hawai'iHAW San Diego StateSDSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Boise StateBOISHawai'iHAW 95.8% Boise StateBOISSan Diego StateSDSU 4.2%	<0.1%
8-1 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	Boise StateBOISSan José StateSJSU	<0.1%
8-1 Colorado StateCSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS Fresno StateFRES UNLVUNLV	CCG participants not 100% certain Colorado StateCSUUNLVUNLV 74.6% Colorado StateCSUFresno StateFRES 25.4%	<0.1%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS 7-2 Colorado StateCSU Hawai'iHAW	Boise StateBOISHawai'iHAW	<0.1%
9-0 Colorado StateCSU 7-2 Boise StateBOIS San José StateSJSU UNLVUNLV	Colorado StateCSUSan José StateSJSU	<0.1%
9-0 Boise StateBOIS Colorado StateCSU 8-1 San Diego StateSDSU	Boise StateBOISColorado StateCSU	<0.1%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → CFP rank / computer rankings → Overall winning percentage → Next-highest team → Common conference opponents

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.