Sun Belt Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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50 of 280 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
9-0 LouisianaUL 7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO James MadisonJMU	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMULouisianaUL 62.6% Georgia SouthernGASOLouisianaUL 37.4%	3.2%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 James MadisonJMU South AlabamaUSA	James MadisonJMUSouth AlabamaUSA	3.2%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO James MadisonJMU	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMULouisianaUL 62.7% Georgia SouthernGASOLouisianaUL 32.7% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 3.0%	3.0%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO James MadisonJMU South AlabamaUSA	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouth AlabamaUSA 62.9% Georgia SouthernGASOSouth AlabamaUSA 37.0%	2.8%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 James MadisonJMU Texas StateTXST	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMULouisianaUL 97.8% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 2.2%	2.4%
7-2 James MadisonJMU LouisianaUL South AlabamaUSA	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouth AlabamaUSA 93.6% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 6.4%	2.3%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO James MadisonJMU Texas StateTXST	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMULouisianaUL 63.4% Georgia SouthernGASOLouisianaUL 34.6% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 1.5%	2.1%
7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO James MadisonJMU LouisianaUL South AlabamaUSA	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouth AlabamaUSA 61.1% Georgia SouthernGASOSouth AlabamaUSA 33.3% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 3.9%	1.9%
9-0 LouisianaUL 7-2 James MadisonJMU Texas StateTXST	James MadisonJMULouisianaUL	1.4%
7-2 James MadisonJMU LouisianaUL Texas StateTXST	James MadisonJMUTexas StateTXST	1.3%
9-0 LouisianaUL 7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO James MadisonJMU Texas StateTXST	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMULouisianaUL 61.8% Georgia SouthernGASOLouisianaUL 38.2%	1.3%
7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO James MadisonJMU LouisianaUL Texas StateTXST	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUTexas StateTXST 64.7% Georgia SouthernGASOTexas StateTXST 35.3%	1.1%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO South AlabamaUSA	CCG participants not 100% certain Georgia SouthernGASOSouth AlabamaUSA 60.0% Coastal CarolinaCCUSouth AlabamaUSA 19.7% App StateAPPSouth AlabamaUSA 11.8%	1.0%
7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO James MadisonJMU LouisianaUL	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMULouisianaUL 25.3% Georgia SouthernGASOLouisianaUL 15.8% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 12.7%	0.9%
9-0 LouisianaUL 7-2 James MadisonJMU MarshallMRSH	James MadisonJMULouisianaUL	0.8%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 James MadisonJMU MarshallMRSH	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMULouisianaUL 96.2% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 3.6%	0.8%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO Texas StateTXST	CCG participants not 100% certain Georgia SouthernGASOLouisianaUL 59.2% Coastal CarolinaCCULouisianaUL 20.3% App StateAPPLouisianaUL 11.6%	0.8%
8-1 Georgia SouthernGASO 7-2 James MadisonJMU LouisianaUL South AlabamaUSA	CCG participants not 100% certain Georgia SouthernGASOSouth AlabamaUSA 93.8% Arkansas StateARSTGeorgia SouthernGASO 6.2%	0.7%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 James MadisonJMU MarshallMRSH South AlabamaUSA	James MadisonJMUSouth AlabamaUSA	0.7%
9-0 LouisianaUL 7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO James MadisonJMU MarshallMRSH	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMULouisianaUL 64.6% Georgia SouthernGASOLouisianaUL 35.4%	0.7%
7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO LouisianaUL South AlabamaUSA	CCG participants not 100% certain Georgia SouthernGASOSouth AlabamaUSA 54.1% Coastal CarolinaCCUSouth AlabamaUSA 19.7% App StateAPPSouth AlabamaUSA 12.4%	0.7%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO James MadisonJMU MarshallMRSH South AlabamaUSA	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouth AlabamaUSA 63.7% Georgia SouthernGASOSouth AlabamaUSA 36.3%	0.6%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO James MadisonJMU MarshallMRSH	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMULouisianaUL 57.7% Georgia SouthernGASOLouisianaUL 36.7% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 2.9%	0.6%
9-0 LouisianaUL 7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO Old DominionODU	CCG participants not 100% certain Georgia SouthernGASOLouisianaUL 33.0% LouisianaULOld DominionODU 31.9% Coastal CarolinaCCULouisianaUL 21.9%	0.6%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 James MadisonJMU MarshallMRSH Texas StateTXST	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMULouisianaUL 97.8% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 2.2%	0.6%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 MarshallMRSH South AlabamaUSA	CCG participants not 100% certain Georgia SouthernGASOSouth AlabamaUSA 42.1% James MadisonJMUSouth AlabamaUSA 18.9% MarshallMRSHSouth AlabamaUSA 17.3%	0.6%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 Old DominionODU South AlabamaUSA	CCG participants not 100% certain Coastal CarolinaCCUSouth AlabamaUSA 37.3% Old DominionODUSouth AlabamaUSA 36.5% App StateAPPSouth AlabamaUSA 23.8%	0.6%
9-0 LouisianaUL 7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO MarshallMRSH	CCG participants not 100% certain Georgia SouthernGASOLouisianaUL 87.7% App StateAPPLouisianaUL 4.8% Coastal CarolinaCCULouisianaUL 4.0%	0.6%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO Old DominionODU South AlabamaUSA	CCG participants not 100% certain Georgia SouthernGASOSouth AlabamaUSA 36.2% Old DominionODUSouth AlabamaUSA 29.7% Coastal CarolinaCCUSouth AlabamaUSA 22.2%	0.5%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO MarshallMRSH	CCG participants not 100% certain Georgia SouthernGASOLouisianaUL 80.4% App StateAPPLouisianaUL 7.5% Coastal CarolinaCCULouisianaUL 5.1%	0.5%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO Old DominionODU	CCG participants not 100% certain Georgia SouthernGASOLouisianaUL 34.8% LouisianaULOld DominionODU 30.4% Coastal CarolinaCCULouisianaUL 19.3%	0.5%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 Arkansas StateARST James MadisonJMU	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMULouisianaUL 63.4% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 34.1% James MadisonJMUTexas StateTXST 2.4%	0.5%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO James MadisonJMU MarshallMRSH Texas StateTXST	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMULouisianaUL 57.2% Georgia SouthernGASOLouisianaUL 39.8% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 2.1%	0.5%
7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO James MadisonJMU LouisianaUL MarshallMRSH South AlabamaUSA	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouth AlabamaUSA 61.7% Georgia SouthernGASOSouth AlabamaUSA 34.8% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 2.5%	0.5%
7-2 LouisianaUL Old DominionODU South AlabamaUSA	CCG participants not 100% certain Coastal CarolinaCCUSouth AlabamaUSA 32.8% Old DominionODUSouth AlabamaUSA 32.3% App StateAPPSouth AlabamaUSA 21.3%	0.5%
7-2 James MadisonJMU LouisianaUL MarshallMRSH South AlabamaUSA	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouth AlabamaUSA 94.0% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 6.0%	0.5%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO MarshallMRSH South AlabamaUSA	CCG participants not 100% certain Georgia SouthernGASOSouth AlabamaUSA 85.6% Coastal CarolinaCCUSouth AlabamaUSA 5.4% App StateAPPSouth AlabamaUSA 4.7%	0.5%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 Arkansas StateARST Georgia SouthernGASO James MadisonJMU	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMULouisianaUL 43.6% Georgia SouthernGASOLouisianaUL 22.3% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 20.5%	0.5%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 MarshallMRSH Texas StateTXST	CCG participants not 100% certain Georgia SouthernGASOLouisianaUL 44.1% James MadisonJMULouisianaUL 20.7% LouisianaULMarshallMRSH 14.8%	0.5%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 Old DominionODU Texas StateTXST	CCG participants not 100% certain LouisianaULOld DominionODU 38.4% Coastal CarolinaCCULouisianaUL 36.6% App StateAPPLouisianaUL 19.6%	0.4%
9-0 LouisianaUL 7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO Texas StateTXST	CCG participants not 100% certain Georgia SouthernGASOLouisianaUL 59.0% Coastal CarolinaCCULouisianaUL 18.9% App StateAPPLouisianaUL 13.2%	0.4%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO Old DominionODU Texas StateTXST	CCG participants not 100% certain Georgia SouthernGASOLouisianaUL 36.1% LouisianaULOld DominionODU 29.3% Coastal CarolinaCCULouisianaUL 23.1%	0.4%
7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO James MadisonJMU South AlabamaUSA	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouth AlabamaUSA 48.4% Georgia SouthernGASOSouth AlabamaUSA 29.7% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 13.7%	0.4%
7-2 LouisianaUL MarshallMRSH South AlabamaUSA	CCG participants not 100% certain Georgia SouthernGASOSouth AlabamaUSA 36.4% James MadisonJMUSouth AlabamaUSA 18.9% MarshallMRSHSouth AlabamaUSA 16.6%	0.4%
8-1 Georgia SouthernGASO 7-2 James MadisonJMU LouisianaUL Texas StateTXST	Georgia SouthernGASOTexas StateTXST	0.4%
7-2 Arkansas StateARST James MadisonJMU LouisianaUL South AlabamaUSA	CCG participants not 100% certain James MadisonJMUSouth AlabamaUSA 54.5% Arkansas StateARSTJames MadisonJMU 45.5%	0.4%
9-0 LouisianaUL 7-2 Arkansas StateARST James MadisonJMU	James MadisonJMULouisianaUL	0.4%
8-1 LouisianaUL 7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO MarshallMRSH Texas StateTXST	CCG participants not 100% certain Georgia SouthernGASOLouisianaUL 84.8% App StateAPPLouisianaUL 4.9% Coastal CarolinaCCULouisianaUL 4.9%	0.4%
7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO LouisianaUL Old DominionODU South AlabamaUSA	CCG participants not 100% certain Georgia SouthernGASOSouth AlabamaUSA 32.9% Old DominionODUSouth AlabamaUSA 27.6% Coastal CarolinaCCUSouth AlabamaUSA 24.1%	0.4%
7-2 Georgia SouthernGASO LouisianaUL Texas StateTXST	CCG participants not 100% certain Georgia SouthernGASOTexas StateTXST 59.0% Coastal CarolinaCCUTexas StateTXST 22.5% App StateAPPTexas StateTXST 11.2%	0.4%

How Tiebreakers Work

Divisional (East vs. West): each division champion is decided by head-to-head → next-highest team → non-divisional common opponents → strength of schedule, then the two champions meet in the CCG

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.