Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
53.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W34-10 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L33-41 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W41-38 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W23-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W34-24 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W34-24 | |
| 10 | 10/29 | W23-17 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:87% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:49% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:71% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:82% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 24.4% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 45.0% | 60.9% |
| 6-2 | 25.1% | 8.2% |
| 5-3 | 5.2% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 53.8% (-0.0%) | 54.0% (+0.2%) | |
| 53.8% (+0.0%) | 53.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 54.0% (+0.1%) | 53.0% (-0.8%) | |
| 52.6% (-1.2%) | 53.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 12.1% (-41.7%) | 60.3% (+6.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Southern Miss
App State
UL Monroe
Georgia StateLouisianaCCG: 80.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LouisianaCCG: 60.3% • Scenario: 86.5%
Data from 2024-11-03
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
24.4%Any 1 loss
60.9%
45.0%
100.0%
10.0%94.7%
5.4%
41.8%
3.8%
41.6%
25.9%Any 2 losses
10.2%
20.2%59.3%
2.3%5.6%
10.6%3.5%
1.5%1.0%
5.8%Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03