Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-11-03
Conference Standings
| 1 |  LouisianaUL | 4-0 | 7-1 | 53.8% | |
| 2 |  Georgia SouthernGASO | 4-1 | 6-3 | 35.5% | |
| T3 |  Arkansas StateARST | 3-1 | 5-3 | 6.8% | |
| T3 |  MarshallMRSH | 3-1 | 5-3 | 2.1% | |
| T5 |  South AlabamaUSA | 3-2 | 4-5 | 28.5% | |
| T5 |  Old DominionODU | 3-2 | 4-5 | 4.0% | |
| T5 |  UL MonroeULM | 3-2 | 5-3 | 1.2% | |
| T8 |  James MadisonJMU | 2-2 | 6-2 | 46.2% | |
| T8 |  Texas StateTXST | 2-2 | 4-4 | 9.7% | |
| 10 |  App StateAPP | 2-3 | 4-4 | 5.1% | |
| 11 |  Coastal CarolinaCCU | 1-3 | 4-4 | 7.1% | |
| 12 |  TroyTROY | 1-4 | 2-7 | - | |
| T13 |  Georgia StateGAST | 0-4 | 2-6 | - | |
| T13 |  Southern MissUSM | 0-4 | 1-7 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 53.8%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 53.8% (-0.0%) | 54.0% (+0.2%) | |
| 53.8% (+0.0%) | 53.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 54.0% (+0.1%) | 53.0% (-0.8%) | |
| 52.6% (-1.2%) | 53.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 12.1% (-41.7%) | 60.3% (+6.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Southern MissApp StateUL MonroeGeorgia StateLouisianaCCG: 80.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LouisianaCCG: 60.3% • Scenario: 86.5%
Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LouisianaUL | 100% | 60.9% | 8.2% | - | - | 53.8% |
| James MadisonJMU | - | - | 71.4% | 7.1% | - | 46.2% |
| Georgia SouthernGASO | - | 100% | 44.7% | 9.8% | - | 35.5% |
| South AlabamaUSA | - | - | 91.1% | 2.2% | - | 28.5% |
| Texas StateTXST | - | - | 30.8% | 2.3% | 0.2% | 9.7% |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | - | - | - | 38.9% | 16.8% | 7.1% |
| Arkansas StateARST | - | 68.5% | 23.8% | 7.8% | 0.5% | 6.8% |
| App StateAPP | - | - | - | 98.3% | 18.6% | 5.1% |
| Old DominionODU | - | - | 30.1% | 2.9% | - | 4.0% |
| MarshallMRSH | - | 70.4% | 4.1% | 0.3% | - | 2.1% |
| UL MonroeULM | - | - | 68.2% | 4.1% | - | 1.2% |
| Georgia StateGAST | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Southern MissUSM | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TroyTROY | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-11-03
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LouisianaUL(4-0) | 24.4% | 45.0% | 25.1% | 5.2% | 0.3% | - | - | - | - | 6.9 |
| Georgia SouthernGASO(4-1) | - | 14.2% | 39.7% | 35.8% | 10.3% | - | - | - | - | 5.6 |
| James MadisonJMU(2-2) | - | - | 61.4% | 32.6% | 5.7% | 0.4% | <0.1% | - | - | 5.5 |
| South AlabamaUSA(3-2) | - | - | 30.1% | 48.3% | 20.4% | 1.1% | - | - | - | 5.1 |
| Texas StateTXST(2-2) | - | - | 27.2% | 54.2% | 16.9% | 1.7% | <0.1% | - | - | 5.1 |
| MarshallMRSH(3-1) | - | 1.7% | 20.6% | 46.6% | 27.3% | 3.9% | - | - | - | 4.9 |
| Old DominionODU(3-2) | - | - | 9.1% | 44.4% | 37.7% | 8.9% | - | - | - | 4.5 |
| Arkansas StateARST(3-1) | - | 1.2% | 12.4% | 36.4% | 38.3% | 11.8% | - | - | - | 4.5 |
| UL MonroeULM(3-2) | - | - | 1.0% | 11.7% | 42.4% | 44.9% | - | - | - | 3.7 |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU(1-3) | - | - | - | 6.6% | 26.8% | 38.5% | 23.0% | 5.0% | - | 3.1 |
| App StateAPP(2-3) | - | - | - | 1.7% | 18.6% | 46.1% | 33.5% | - | - | 2.9 |
| TroyTROY(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 13.5% | 47.1% | 36.4% | 3.0% | - | 2.7 |
| Georgia StateGAST(0-4) | - | - | - | - | 0.1% | 3.8% | 29.2% | 46.7% | 20.1% | 1.2 |
| Southern MissUSM(0-4) | - | - | - | - | 0.0% | 0.2% | 3.9% | 28.5% | 67.4% | 0.4 |
Data from 2024-11-03