Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W45-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L14-31 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L14-49 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W27-20 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W52-37 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L23-24 | |
| 8 | 10/17 | W35-20 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | W28-23 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:82% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:63% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:34% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:9% |
Data from 2024-11-03
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 1.7% | 70.4% |
| 6-2 | 20.6% | 4.1% |
| 5-3 | 46.6% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 27.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 3.9% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-03
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-03
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.1% (+0.0%) | 2.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.1% (+0.0%) | 2.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.1% (-0.0%) | 2.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 3.2% (+1.1%) | 2.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.0% (-0.2%) | 2.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Southern Miss
App State
Texas State
Georgia State
Arkansas StateCCG: 9.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MarshallGeorgia StateCCG: 3.4% • Scenario: 3.6%
Data from 2024-11-03
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
70.4%
1.7%Any 1 loss
18.3%
4.2%73.7%
0.3%
15.6%
2.9%
7.3%
0.9%Data from 2024-11-03
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-03