Big Ten

Big Ten Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-11-10

Big TenConference Standings

T1OregonORE7-010-094.1%
T1IndianaIU7-010-019.7%
T3Ohio StOSU5-18-171.9%
T3Penn StPSU5-18-114.3%
T5IowaIOWA4-36-4-
T5MinnesotaMINN4-36-4-
T7IllinoisILL3-36-3-
T7WisconsinWIS3-35-4-
T9MichiganMICH3-45-5-
T9UCLAUCLA3-44-5-
T9WashingtonWASH3-45-5-
T12Michigan StMSU2-44-5-
T12NebraskaNEB2-45-4-
T12NorthwesternNU2-44-5-
T12RutgersRUTG2-45-4-
16USCUSC2-54-5-
17MarylandMD1-54-5-
18PurduePUR0-61-8-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Big Ten CCG Matchups

166.2%
Ohio StOSU
vs
OREOregon
219.4%
IndianaIU
vs
OREOregon
38.5%
OregonORE
vs
PSUPenn St
45.6%
Ohio StOSU
vs
PSUPenn St
50.2%
IndianaIU
vs
PSUPenn St
60.1%
IndianaIU
vs
OSUOhio St

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10Week 11Week 12

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Big Ten CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 94.1%
Game
OregonCCG OddsAway
OregonCCG OddsHome
Penn StPSU@PurduePUR
94.0%
(-0.1%)		99.5%
(+5.5%)
Michigan StMSU@IllinoisILL
96.9%
(+2.8%)		93.2%
(-0.9%)
OregonORE@WisconsinWIS
97.9%
(+3.8%)		65.0%
(-29.0%)
Ohio StOSU@NorthwesternNU
93.9%
(-0.1%)		98.9%
(+4.8%)
NebraskaNEB@USCUSC
97.4%
(+3.3%)		93.7%
(-0.4%)
RutgersRUTG@MarylandMD
94.1%
(+0.1%)		94.0%
(-0.0%)
UCLAUCLA@WashingtonWASH
94.3%
(+0.3%)		94.0%
(-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for Oregon

PurduePurdueMichigan StMichigan State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.4%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Oregon

OregonOregon

CCG: 97.9% • Scenario: 88.4%

Ways for Oregon to Clinch Big Ten CCG Spot This Week

OregonOregonNorthwesternNorthwestern
2.5%
PurduePurdueOregonOregon
1.3%
PurduePurdueMichigan StMichigan State
0.4%
PurduePurdueUCLAUCLA
0.3%
Michigan StMichigan StateNebraskaNebraskaRutgersRutgersUCLAUCLA
0.2%
PurduePurdueNebraskaNebraska
0.1%

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-17-2Overall
OregonORE100%69.5%0.7%94.1%
Ohio StOSU-100%0.2%71.9%
IndianaIU100%3.3%-19.7%
Penn StPSU-17.5%<0.1%14.3%
IllinoisILL----
IowaIOWA----
MarylandMD----
MichiganMICH----
Michigan StMSU----
MinnesotaMINN----
NebraskaNEB----
NorthwesternNU----
PurduePUR----
RutgersRUTG----
UCLAUCLA----
USCUSC----
WashingtonWASH----
WisconsinWIS----

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-44-53-62-71-80-9Avg Wins
OregonORE(7-0)82.3%17.0%0.7%-------8.8
IndianaIU(7-0)17.0%81.9%1.1%-------8.2
Penn StPSU(5-1)-81.4%17.7%0.9%0.0%-----7.8
Ohio StOSU(5-1)-71.9%25.6%2.5%<0.1%-----7.7
IowaIOWA(4-3)---71.5%26.4%2.0%----5.7
IllinoisILL(3-3)---27.9%45.2%23.2%3.7%---5.0
MinnesotaMINN(4-3)---4.8%39.1%56.1%----4.5
WisconsinWIS(3-3)---5.2%44.3%40.7%9.8%---4.4
MichiganMICH(3-4)----9.5%80.1%10.4%---4.0
WashingtonWASH(3-4)----5.5%74.5%20.0%---3.9
USCUSC(2-5)-----71.1%26.7%2.2%--3.7
Michigan StMSU(2-4)----10.1%44.8%38.5%6.5%--3.6
UCLAUCLA(3-4)----4.4%33.1%62.5%---3.4
RutgersRUTG(2-4)----6.5%29.4%43.4%20.8%--3.2
NorthwesternNU(2-4)----0.1%5.6%41.9%52.4%--2.5
NebraskaNEB(2-4)----0.3%6.5%37.9%55.2%--2.5
MarylandMD(1-5)-----0.6%15.8%57.6%26.0%-1.9
PurduePUR(0-6)------<0.1%0.5%19.7%79.8%0.2

Data from 2024-11-10 • SportsSimulate.com