Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-11-10
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 5-0 | 6-3 | 94.6% | |
| T1 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 5-0 | 7-2 | 67.6% | |
| 3 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 4-1 | 7-2 | 8.3% | |
| 4 |  LibertyLIB | 4-2 | 6-2 | 29.5% | |
| 5 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 2-3 | 3-6 | <0.1% | |
| T6 |  Louisiana TechLT | 2-4 | 3-6 | - | |
| T6 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 2-4 | 3-7 | - | |
| 8 |  UTEPUTEP | 2-5 | 2-8 | - | |
| 9 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 1-4 | 1-8 | - | |
| 10 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 1-5 | 2-7 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-11-10
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 94.6%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 93.5% (-1.1%) | 97.0% (+2.5%) | |
| 90.4% (-4.2%) | 95.0% (+0.4%) | |
| 94.6% (-0.0%) | 94.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 94.0% (-0.5%) | 94.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 94.5% (-0.1%) | 94.6% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kennesaw StateFlorida International
MassachusettsNew Mexico StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Kennesaw StateJacksonville StateCCG: 97.6% • Scenario: 28.7%
Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 99.5% | 52.4% | 0.9% | 94.6% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 99.5% | 39.6% | 3.0% | 67.6% |
| LibertyLIB | - | - | 69.8% | 0.6% | 29.5% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | - | 95.0% | 13.6% | 0.5% | 8.3% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | - | - | - | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | - | - | - | - | - |
| Louisiana TechLT | - | - | - | - | - |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | - | - | - | - | - |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | - | - | - | - |
| UTEPUTEP | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-11-10
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST(5-0) | 46.8% | 42.9% | 9.7% | 0.6% | - | - | - | - | 7.4 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(5-0) | 10.6% | 40.5% | 41.5% | 7.4% | - | - | - | - | 6.5 |
| LibertyLIB(4-2) | - | - | 41.9% | 45.7% | 12.4% | - | - | - | 5.3 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(4-1) | - | 4.2% | 30.0% | 48.9% | 16.8% | - | - | - | 5.2 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(2-3) | - | - | - | 3.4% | 38.1% | 45.8% | 12.7% | - | 3.3 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(2-4) | - | - | - | - | 18.1% | 54.4% | 27.5% | - | 2.9 |
| Louisiana TechLT(2-4) | - | - | - | - | 12.0% | 61.0% | 27.0% | - | 2.9 |
| UTEPUTEP(2-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 48.3% | 51.7% | - | 2.5 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 4.9% | 26.2% | 44.7% | 24.1% | 2.1 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(1-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 20.0% | 50.6% | 29.4% | 1.9 |
Data from 2024-11-10