Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
67.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L0-63 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-0 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W49-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W26-21 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L20-21 | |
| 7 | 10/10 | W44-17 | |
| 8 | 10/16 | W31-14 | |
| 10 | 10/30 | W31-14 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | W41-28 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:82% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:34% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:38% |
Data from 2024-11-10
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 10.6% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 40.5% | 99.5% |
| 6-2 | 41.5% | 39.6% |
| 5-3 | 7.4% | 3.0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-10
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 66.5% (-1.0%) | 69.8% (+2.2%) | |
| 68.1% (+0.5%) | 67.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 67.6% (+0.0%) | 66.8% (-0.8%) | |
| 46.1% (-21.4%) | 72.2% (+4.7%) | |
| 68.7% (+1.1%) | 67.5% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kennesaw State
Florida International
Massachusetts
New Mexico StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Western KentuckyCCG: 72.2% • Scenario: 82.1%
Data from 2024-11-10
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
10.6%Any 1 loss
99.5%
40.5%
100.0%
20.8%
100.0%
2.3%
98.8%
17.3%Any 2 losses
39.6%
41.5%95.3%
3.6%49.1%
4.5%32.3%
33.4%Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10