Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
29.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W41-24 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W30-24 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W28-10 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W35-24 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:74% | |
| 7 | 10/08 | W31-24 | |
| 9 | 10/23 | L24-27 | |
| 10 | 10/30 | L21-31 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | W37-17 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:95% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:66% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:64% |
Data from 2024-11-10
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 41.9% | 69.8% |
| 5-3 | 45.7% | 0.6% |
| 4-4 | 12.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-10
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 29.6% (+0.1%) | 29.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 30.9% (+1.4%) | 29.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 29.5% (-0.0%) | 30.1% (+0.6%) | |
| 42.6% (+13.1%) | 26.7% (-2.9%) | |
| 29.4% (-0.1%) | 29.5% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Sam Houston
Jacksonville State
Massachusetts
Louisiana Tech
New Mexico StateCCG: 66.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Louisiana TechCCG: 42.6% • Scenario: 17.9%
Data from 2024-11-10
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
69.8%
29.5%Any 1 loss
29.2%
29.0%71.1%
1.5%
69.6%
10.4%1.0%
17.1%Any 2 losses
5.6%
7.3%69.6%
0.5%0.9%
5.9%0.7%
0.9%Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10