Conference USA Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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18 of 18 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Western KentuckyWKU	Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB	16.1%
9-0 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Sam HoustonSHSU Western KentuckyWKU	Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU	7.0%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Western KentuckyWKU	Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB	4.8%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 Sam HoustonSHSU Western KentuckyWKU	Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU	2.4%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Sam HoustonSHSU Western KentuckyWKU	Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB	2.2%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST LibertyLIB	Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU	1.5%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST LibertyLIB Sam HoustonSHSU	CCG participants not 100% certain LibertyLIBWestern KentuckyWKU 34.6% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 32.7% Sam HoustonSHSUWestern KentuckyWKU 32.6%	1.4%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Sam HoustonSHSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Sam HoustonSHSUWestern KentuckyWKU 59.3% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 40.7%	1.1%
9-0 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Sam HoustonSHSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Sam HoustonSHSUWestern KentuckyWKU 82.0% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 18.0%	1.1%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST Sam HoustonSHSU Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Sam HoustonSHSUWestern KentuckyWKU 35.9% Jacksonville StateJXSTSam HoustonSHSU 32.5% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 31.6%	0.7%
7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST LibertyLIB Sam HoustonSHSU Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain LibertyLIBWestern KentuckyWKU 56.1% Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 43.9%	0.5%
8-1 Jacksonville StateJXST 7-2 LibertyLIB Sam HoustonSHSU	Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB	0.5%
7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST LibertyLIB Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 51.6% LibertyLIBWestern KentuckyWKU 24.8% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 23.5%	0.5%
8-1 Sam HoustonSHSU 7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Sam HoustonSHSUWestern KentuckyWKU 54.6% Jacksonville StateJXSTSam HoustonSHSU 45.4%	0.3%
7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST Sam HoustonSHSU Western KentuckyWKU	CCG participants not 100% certain Sam HoustonSHSUWestern KentuckyWKU 49.2% Jacksonville StateJXSTWestern KentuckyWKU 41.3% Jacksonville StateJXSTSam HoustonSHSU 9.6%	0.2%
8-1 Western KentuckyWKU 7-2 LibertyLIB Sam HoustonSHSU	LibertyLIBWestern KentuckyWKU	0.1%
7-2 Jacksonville StateJXST LibertyLIB Sam HoustonSHSU	CCG participants not 100% certain Jacksonville StateJXSTLibertyLIB 42.5% Jacksonville StateJXSTSam HoustonSHSU 36.2% LibertyLIBSam HoustonSHSU 21.3%	<0.1%
7-2 LibertyLIB Sam HoustonSHSU Western KentuckyWKU	LibertyLIBWestern KentuckyWKU	<0.1%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → CFP rank → Computer rankings composite → Academic Progress Rate

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.