Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
45.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L22-38 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W27-20 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W21-6 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L6-41 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W30-10 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W27-25 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | L20-30 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | W47-16 | |
| 11 | 11/06 | W41-0 | |
| 12 | 11/13 | Win prob:85% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:49% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:93% |
Data from 2024-11-10
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 38.8% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 50.1% | 12.6% |
| 5-3 | 10.6% | 0.2% |
| 4-4 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-10
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 16.4% (-28.8%) | 50.1% (+5.0%) | |
| 50.1% (+5.0%) | 43.9% (-1.3%) | |
| 47.2% (+2.1%) | 45.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 50.5% (+5.3%) | 45.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 52.0% (+6.8%) | 44.5% (-0.7%) | |
| 45.9% (+0.7%) | 44.9% (-0.3%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Eastern Michigan
Akron
Kent State
Central MichiganCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OhioCCG: 50.1% • Scenario: 85.2%
Data from 2024-11-10
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
38.8%Any 1 loss
12.6%
50.1%35.7%
6.7%
17.7%
2.9%
8.4%
40.4%Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10