Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
34.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W49-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W38-23 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W41-17 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L21-26 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W30-20 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L15-30 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W13-6 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | L26-41 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | W29-28 | |
| 12 | 11/12 | Win prob:91% | |
| 13 | 11/20 | Win prob:51% | |
| 14 | 11/26 | Win prob:89% |
Data from 2024-11-10
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-2 | 41.3% | 83.2% |
| 5-3 | 48.7% | 0.4% |
| 4-4 | 9.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-10
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 26.2% (-8.4%) | 36.0% (+1.5%) | |
| 27.4% (-7.2%) | 36.4% (+1.9%) | |
| 33.7% (-0.8%) | 34.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 37.8% (+3.3%) | 34.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (-33.8%) | 38.0% (+3.4%) | |
| 34.2% (-0.4%) | 34.7% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Eastern Michigan
Bowling Green
Akron
Kent State
Ball StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OhioBowling GreenToledoCCG: 42.0% • Scenario: 61.3%
Data from 2024-11-10
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
83.2%
41.3%Any 1 loss
1.4%
9.2%
1.6%
4.2%1.2%
5.1%Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10