Mid-American Conference Tiebreaker Scenarios

Scenarios where tiebreakers determine conference championship game participants

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50 of 125 scenarios

Scenario	CCG Matchup	Probability
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL	3.9%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU Miami (OH)M-OH	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 71.3% Bowling GreenBGSUOhioOHIO 28.7%	3.1%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL	3.0%
7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL	2.6%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL	2.4%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU Miami (OH)M-OH Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 82.4% Bowling GreenBGSUOhioOHIO 17.6%	2.4%
7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL 94.5% Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL 5.3%	2.1%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU OhioOHIO	CCG participants not 100% certain Bowling GreenBGSUMiami (OH)M-OH 73.8% Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 26.2%	2.1%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL 99.5%	1.8%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO	Bowling GreenBGSUMiami (OH)M-OH	1.6%
7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO	CCG participants not 100% certain Bowling GreenBGSUMiami (OH)M-OH 77.1% Bowling GreenBGSUOhioOHIO 14.0% Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 8.9%	1.4%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO	1.4%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL	1.4%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL	1.3%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Bowling GreenBGSUMiami (OH)M-OH 98.1% Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 1.9%	1.3%
7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Bowling GreenBGSUMiami (OH)M-OH 71.3% Miami (OH)M-OHWestern MichiganWMU 15.3% Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 7.8%	1.1%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL	1.1%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU ToledoTOL	Bowling GreenBGSUMiami (OH)M-OH	1.0%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH	BuffaloBUFOhioOHIO	1.0%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	Bowling GreenBGSUMiami (OH)M-OH	1.0%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL	1.0%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH Western MichiganWMU	Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO	0.9%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Bowling GreenBGSUWestern MichiganWMU 91.9% Bowling GreenBGSUOhioOHIO 8.1%	0.9%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO	0.9%
7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL 77.3% BuffaloBUFToledoTOL 22.5%	0.8%
7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL 99.9%	0.8%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH ToledoTOL	Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL	0.8%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain BuffaloBUFOhioOHIO 54.4% Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 45.6%	0.8%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 64.7% Miami (OH)M-OHWestern MichiganWMU 35.3%	0.8%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL	0.7%
7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU Miami (OH)M-OH ToledoTOL	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL 71.3% Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL 28.7%	0.7%
7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain BuffaloBUFToledoTOL 89.5% Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL 9.6%	0.7%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO	CCG participants not 100% certain Bowling GreenBGSUMiami (OH)M-OH 60.1% BuffaloBUFMiami (OH)M-OH 23.2% Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 16.8%	0.6%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	Bowling GreenBGSUMiami (OH)M-OH	0.6%
7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU Miami (OH)M-OH ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL 78.3% Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL 21.8%	0.6%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL	0.6%
7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL	0.6%
8-1 OhioOHIO 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain OhioOHIOWestern MichiganWMU 61.5% Bowling GreenBGSUOhioOHIO 38.5%	0.5%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO	Bowling GreenBGSUBuffaloBUF	0.5%
7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL	0.5%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL	0.5%
8-1 Western MichiganWMU 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	ToledoTOLWestern MichiganWMU	0.5%
7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU BuffaloBUF Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO	CCG participants not 100% certain Bowling GreenBGSUBuffaloBUF 73.5% BuffaloBUFOhioOHIO 25.1%	0.5%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL	0.5%
8-1 Western MichiganWMU 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	CCG participants not 100% certain ToledoTOLWestern MichiganWMU 99.8%	0.5%
8-1 Bowling GreenBGSU 7-2 OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Bowling GreenBGSUWestern MichiganWMU 99.8%	0.4%
7-2 Miami (OH)M-OH OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 60.5% Miami (OH)M-OHWestern MichiganWMU 39.2%	0.4%
7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU OhioOHIO ToledoTOL	Bowling GreenBGSUToledoTOL	0.4%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO ToledoTOL Western MichiganWMU	Miami (OH)M-OHToledoTOL	0.4%
8-1 Miami (OH)M-OH 7-2 Bowling GreenBGSU BuffaloBUF OhioOHIO Western MichiganWMU	CCG participants not 100% certain BuffaloBUFMiami (OH)M-OH 50.9% Bowling GreenBGSUMiami (OH)M-OH 48.0% Miami (OH)M-OHOhioOHIO 1.1%	0.4%

How Tiebreakers Work

Head-to-head → Common conference opponents → Next-highest opponent → Strength of schedule → Team Rating Score

Some tiebreaker steps involve factors like point differential that cannot be predicted before games are played, leading to uncertain outcomes.