Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-11-10
Conference Standings
| 1 |  LouisianaUL | 5-0 | 8-1 | 70.1% | |
| T2 |  Georgia SouthernGASO | 4-1 | 6-3 | 33.3% | |
| T2 |  MarshallMRSH | 4-1 | 6-3 | 2.7% | |
| T4 |  James MadisonJMU | 3-2 | 7-2 | 50.3% | |
| T4 |  South AlabamaUSA | 3-2 | 4-5 | 24.2% | |
| T4 |  Texas StateTXST | 3-2 | 5-4 | 5.7% | |
| T4 |  Old DominionODU | 3-2 | 4-5 | 2.8% | |
| T4 |  Arkansas StateARST | 3-2 | 5-4 | - | |
| 9 |  UL MonroeULM | 3-3 | 5-4 | - | |
| 10 |  Coastal CarolinaCCU | 2-3 | 5-4 | 9.2% | |
| 11 |  App StateAPP | 2-4 | 4-5 | 1.7% | |
| 12 |  TroyTROY | 1-4 | 2-7 | - | |
| T13 |  Georgia StateGAST | 0-5 | 2-7 | - | |
| T13 |  Southern MissUSM | 0-5 | 1-8 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-11-10
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 70.1%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 69.8% (-0.4%) | 70.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 29.7% (-40.4%) | 99.0% (+28.8%) | |
| 70.2% (+0.1%) | 69.6% (-0.5%) | |
| 70.2% (+0.1%) | 70.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 69.9% (-0.2%) | 70.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 74.7% (+4.6%) | 70.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 69.7% (-0.4%) | 70.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
LouisianaSouthern MissCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 1.6%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LouisianaCCG: 99.0% • Scenario: 58.3%
Ways for to Clinch CCG Spot This Week
LouisianaSouthern MissMarshallLouisianaOld DominionArkansas StateUL MonroeLouisianaOld DominionArkansas StateGeorgia SouthernUL MonroeData from 2024-11-10
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LouisianaUL | 100% | 63.7% | 7.5% | - | - | 70.1% |
| James MadisonJMU | - | - | 72.4% | 4.5% | - | 50.3% |
| Georgia SouthernGASO | - | 100% | 41.8% | 7.8% | - | 33.3% |
| South AlabamaUSA | - | - | 100% | 0.7% | - | 24.2% |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | - | - | - | 32.0% | 13.2% | 9.2% |
| Texas StateTXST | - | - | 14.5% | 1.0% | <0.1% | 5.7% |
| Old DominionODU | - | - | 26.9% | 1.6% | - | 2.8% |
| MarshallMRSH | - | 71.4% | 2.2% | - | - | 2.7% |
| App StateAPP | - | - | - | - | 60.7% | 1.7% |
| Arkansas StateARST | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Georgia StateGAST | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Southern MissUSM | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TroyTROY | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UL MonroeULM | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-11-10
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LouisianaUL(5-0) | 40.2% | 45.4% | 13.3% | 1.1% | - | - | - | - | - | 7.2 |
| James MadisonJMU(3-2) | - | - | 67.7% | 28.5% | 3.6% | 0.1% | - | - | - | 5.6 |
| Georgia SouthernGASO(4-1) | - | 13.7% | 40.0% | 36.4% | 9.9% | - | - | - | - | 5.6 |
| Texas StateTXST(3-2) | - | - | 35.3% | 57.7% | 6.9% | 0.2% | - | - | - | 5.3 |
| MarshallMRSH(4-1) | - | 2.9% | 30.7% | 49.4% | 17.0% | - | - | - | - | 5.2 |
| South AlabamaUSA(3-2) | - | - | 23.8% | 50.4% | 24.6% | 1.1% | - | - | - | 5.0 |
| Old DominionODU(3-2) | - | - | 7.7% | 44.2% | 39.7% | 8.4% | - | - | - | 4.5 |
| Arkansas StateARST(3-2) | - | - | 5.1% | 29.1% | 45.7% | 20.1% | - | - | - | 4.2 |
| UL MonroeULM(3-3) | - | - | - | 5.2% | 44.1% | 50.7% | - | - | - | 3.5 |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU(2-3) | - | - | - | 12.1% | 40.5% | 37.3% | 10.1% | - | - | 3.5 |
| TroyTROY(1-4) | - | - | - | - | 10.2% | 47.9% | 39.4% | 2.5% | - | 2.7 |
| App StateAPP(2-4) | - | - | - | - | 2.8% | 36.4% | 60.7% | - | - | 2.4 |
| Georgia StateGAST(0-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 2.0% | 25.7% | 50.8% | 21.5% | 1.1 |
| Southern MissUSM(0-5) | - | - | - | - | - | <0.1% | 0.6% | 12.7% | 86.7% | 0.1 |
Data from 2024-11-10