Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
70.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W34-10 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L33-41 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W41-38 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W23-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W34-24 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W34-24 | |
| 10 | 10/29 | W23-17 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | W55-19 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:58% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:78% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:88% |
Data from 2024-11-10
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 40.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 45.4% | 63.7% |
| 6-2 | 13.3% | 7.5% |
| 5-3 | 1.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-10
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-10
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 69.8% (-0.4%) | 70.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 29.7% (-40.4%) | 99.0% (+28.8%) | |
| 70.2% (+0.1%) | 69.6% (-0.5%) | |
| 70.2% (+0.1%) | 70.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 69.9% (-0.2%) | 70.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 74.7% (+4.6%) | 70.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 69.7% (-0.4%) | 70.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Louisiana
Southern MissCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 1.6%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LouisianaCCG: 99.0% • Scenario: 58.3%
Ways for to Clinch 
CCG Spot This Week
LouisianaSouthern Miss
MarshallLouisiana
Old Dominion
Arkansas State
UL MonroeLouisianaOld DominionArkansas State
Georgia SouthernUL MonroeData from 2024-11-10
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
40.2%Any 1 loss
63.7%
45.4%
100.0%
11.2%100.0%
5.5%
42.7%
28.7%Any 2 losses
7.5%
13.3%58.8%
1.5%1.1%
7.9%1.0%
3.9%Data from 2024-11-10
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-10