American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-11-17
Conference Standings
| T1 |  ArmyARMY | 7-0 | 9-0 | 100% | |
| T1 |  TulaneTULN | 7-0 | 9-2 | 100% | |
| T3 |  MemphisMEM | 5-2 | 9-2 | - | |
| T3 |  NavyNAVY | 5-2 | 7-3 | - | |
| 5 |  East CarolinaECU | 4-2 | 6-4 | - | |
| T6 |  South FloridaUSF | 3-3 | 5-5 | - | |
| T6 |  UTSAUTSA | 3-3 | 5-5 | - | |
| T8 |  CharlotteCLT | 2-4 | 3-7 | - | |
| T8 |  North TexasUNT | 2-4 | 5-5 | - | |
| T8 |  RiceRICE | 2-4 | 3-7 | - | |
| T8 |  TempleTEM | 2-4 | 3-7 | - | |
| T12 |  TulsaTLSA | 1-5 | 3-7 | - | |
| T12 |  UABUAB | 1-5 | 2-8 | - | |
| 14 |  Florida AtlanticFAU | 0-6 | 2-8 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-11-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-17
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 8-0 | 7-2 | 7-1 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArmyARMY | 100% | 100% | - | 100% | - | 100% |
| TulaneTULN | - | - | 100% | - | 100% | 100% |
| CharlotteCLT | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| East CarolinaECU | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Florida AtlanticFAU | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| MemphisMEM | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| NavyNAVY | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| North TexasUNT | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| RiceRICE | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| South FloridaUSF | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TempleTEM | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| TulsaTLSA | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UABUAB | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| UTSAUTSA | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-11-17
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 8-0 | 7-2 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 6-3 | 5-3 | 5-4 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArmyARMY(7-0) | 60.2% | 35.0% | 0.0% | 4.9% | 0.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 8.6 |
| TulaneTULN(7-0) | - | 0.0% | 85.5% | - | 14.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7.9 |
| NavyNAVY(5-2) | - | - | - | 14.0% | - | 0.0% | 52.1% | 0.0% | 33.9% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.8 |
| MemphisMEM(5-2) | - | - | - | - | - | 14.5% | 0.0% | 85.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | 5.1 |
| East CarolinaECU(4-2) | - | - | - | - | - | 18.6% | 0.0% | 49.5% | 0.0% | 32.0% | - | - | - | - | 4.9 |
| South FloridaUSF(3-3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 56.1% | 0.0% | 41.8% | 2.1% | - | - | - | 4.5 |
| UTSAUTSA(3-3) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 17.9% | 0.0% | 77.1% | 5.0% | - | - | - | 4.1 |
| North TexasUNT(2-4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 50.2% | 43.6% | 6.2% | - | - | 3.4 |
| RiceRICE(2-4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 26.1% | 52.7% | 21.3% | - | - | 3.0 |
| CharlotteCLT(2-4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 20.3% | 50.1% | 29.6% | - | - | 2.9 |
| TempleTEM(2-4) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 0.9% | 19.5% | 79.7% | - | - | 2.2 |
| UABUAB(1-5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 17.5% | 49.3% | 33.1% | - | 1.8 |
| TulsaTLSA(1-5) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 2.0% | 38.0% | 60.0% | - | 1.4 |
| Florida AtlanticFAU(0-6) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | 38.5% | 47.1% | 14.3% | 1.2 |
Data from 2024-11-17