Sun Belt Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-11-17
Conference Standings
| T1 |  LouisianaUL | 5-1 | 8-2 | 37.1% | |
| T1 |  MarshallMRSH | 5-1 | 7-3 | 5.1% | |
| T3 |  James MadisonJMU | 4-2 | 8-2 | 58.1% | |
| T3 |  South AlabamaUSA | 4-2 | 5-5 | 46.8% | |
| T3 |  Georgia SouthernGASO | 4-2 | 6-4 | 33.0% | |
| T3 |  Texas StateTXST | 4-2 | 6-4 | 16.0% | |
| T3 |  Arkansas StateARST | 4-2 | 6-4 | - | |
| T8 |  Old DominionODU | 3-3 | 4-6 | - | |
| T8 |  UL MonroeULM | 3-3 | 5-5 | - | |
| T10 |  App StateAPP | 2-4 | 4-5 | 2.6% | |
| T10 |  Coastal CarolinaCCU | 2-4 | 5-5 | 1.3% | |
| T10 |  TroyTROY | 2-4 | 3-7 | - | |
| T13 |  Georgia StateGAST | 0-6 | 2-8 | - | |
| T13 |  Southern MissUSM | 0-6 | 1-9 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-11-17
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-11-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-17
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 58.1%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 63.7% (+5.7%) | 4.6% (-53.5%) | |
| 58.7% (+0.6%) | 57.9% (-0.2%) | |
| 58.1% (+0.0%) | 58.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 58.4% (+0.4%) | 58.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 27.7% (-30.3%) | 80.2% (+22.1%) | |
| 58.7% (+0.6%) | 57.6% (-0.5%) | |
| 57.6% (-0.5%) | 58.3% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
James MadisonTroySouthern MissGeorgia StateCoastal CarolinaCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
James MadisonCoastal CarolinaCCG: 88.0% • Scenario: 52.2%
Data from 2024-11-17
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James MadisonJMU | - | 72.3% | 2.3% | - | 58.1% |
| South AlabamaUSA | - | 100% | 0.8% | - | 46.8% |
| LouisianaUL | 53.6% | - | - | - | 37.1% |
| Georgia SouthernGASO | - | 100% | 10.3% | - | 33.0% |
| Texas StateTXST | - | 30.7% | 1.6% | - | 16.0% |
| MarshallMRSH | 72.1% | 3.0% | - | - | 5.1% |
| App StateAPP | - | - | - | 77.4% | 2.6% |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU | - | - | - | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| Arkansas StateARST | - | - | - | - | - |
| Georgia StateGAST | - | - | - | - | - |
| Old DominionODU | - | - | - | - | - |
| Southern MissUSM | - | - | - | - | - |
| TroyTROY | - | - | - | - | - |
| UL MonroeULM | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2024-11-17
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LouisianaUL(5-1) | 69.4% | 28.4% | 2.2% | - | - | - | - | - | 6.7 |
| James MadisonJMU(4-2) | - | 79.6% | 19.2% | 1.1% | - | - | - | - | 5.8 |
| MarshallMRSH(5-1) | 5.1% | 44.3% | 50.6% | - | - | - | - | - | 5.5 |
| Texas StateTXST(4-2) | - | 49.8% | 47.8% | 2.4% | - | - | - | - | 5.5 |
| South AlabamaUSA(4-2) | - | 46.4% | 52.2% | 1.4% | - | - | - | - | 5.4 |
| Georgia SouthernGASO(4-2) | - | 27.6% | 52.5% | 20.0% | - | - | - | - | 5.1 |
| Arkansas StateARST(4-2) | - | 16.4% | 58.8% | 24.7% | - | - | - | - | 4.9 |
| Old DominionODU(3-3) | - | - | 43.2% | 46.4% | 10.4% | - | - | - | 4.3 |
| UL MonroeULM(3-3) | - | - | 3.0% | 36.1% | 60.9% | - | - | - | 3.4 |
| Coastal CarolinaCCU(2-4) | - | - | - | 36.6% | 47.9% | 15.6% | - | - | 3.2 |
| TroyTROY(2-4) | - | - | - | 22.7% | 74.6% | 2.7% | - | - | 3.2 |
| App StateAPP(2-4) | - | - | - | 3.4% | 37.5% | 59.1% | - | - | 2.4 |
| Georgia StateGAST(0-6) | - | - | - | - | - | 1.8% | 38.1% | 60.1% | 0.4 |
| Southern MissUSM(0-6) | - | - | - | - | - | <0.1% | 6.2% | 93.7% | 0.1 |
Data from 2024-11-17