Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W45-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L14-31 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L14-49 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W27-20 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W52-37 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | L23-24 | |
| 8 | 10/17 | W35-20 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | W28-23 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | W37-3 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | W31-19 | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:43% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:12% |
Data from 2024-11-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 5.1% | 72.1% |
| 6-2 | 44.3% | 3.0% |
| 5-3 | 50.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-17
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-17
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 5.1% (+0.0%) | 5.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.9% (-0.2%) | 5.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 5.1% (+0.0%) | 5.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 5.2% (+0.1%) | 5.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.8% (-3.3%) | 7.4% (+2.4%) | |
| 8.7% (+3.6%) | 2.4% (-2.7%) | |
| 5.0% (-0.1%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
App State
Troy
Southern Miss
Georgia State
Georgia SouthernMarshallCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Coastal CarolinaMarshallCCG: 11.9% • Scenario: 24.7%
Data from 2024-11-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
72.1%
5.1%
20.0%
6.7%Data from 2024-11-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-17