Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
37.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-10 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W34-10 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L33-41 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W41-38 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W23-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W34-24 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W34-24 | |
| 10 | 10/29 | W23-17 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | W55-19 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | L22-24 | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:77% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:91% |
Data from 2024-11-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 69.4% | 53.6% |
| 6-2 | 28.4% | 0% |
| 5-3 | 2.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-17
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-11-17
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 37.2% (+0.0%) | 37.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.0% (-37.1%) | 48.6% (+11.5%) | |
| 36.2% (-0.9%) | 69.1% (+32.0%) | |
| 36.6% (-0.5%) | 37.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 37.4% (+0.3%) | 36.9% (-0.2%) | |
| 37.1% (-0.1%) | 37.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 37.1% (-0.0%) | 37.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
App StateLouisiana
Southern Miss
Georgia StateCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
LouisianaCCG: 48.6% • Scenario: 76.4%
Data from 2024-11-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
53.6%
69.4%Data from 2024-11-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-17