Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L3-34 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W66-20 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W59-35 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W40-14 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W29-13 | |
| 7 | 10/12 | W49-14 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W48-31 | |
| 10 | 11/02 | L21-33 | |
| 11 | 11/09 | W24-14 | |
| 12 | 11/16 | W24-20 | |
| 13 | 11/23 | W51-14 | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:57% |
Data from 2024-11-24
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 100.0% | 9.7% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-11-24
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 9.7% (-0.1%) | 9.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 9.7% (-0.0%) | 9.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 9.3% (-0.5%) | 9.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.0%) | 9.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.1%) | 9.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.0%) | 9.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.1%) | 9.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.0%) | 9.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.9% (+0.1%) | 9.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-9.7%) | 100.0% (+90.3%) | |
| 10.0% (+0.3%) | 9.7% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2024-11-24
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
9.7%
57.5%9.8%
42.5%Data from 2024-11-24
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-11-24