Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/24 | W35-14 | |
| 1 | 8/31 | L13-16 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L13-31 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W36-7 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:25% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:11% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:7% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:57% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:5% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:17% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:45% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:59% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 6-1 | 0.1% | 85.9% |
| 5-2 | 1.6% | 9.3% |
| 4-3 | 9.3% | 0.0% |
| 3-4 | 26.0% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 35.5% | 0% |
| 1-6 | 22.3% | 0% |
| 0-7 | 5.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.1%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
New Mexico State
UNLV
Central Michigan
Air Force
Boise StateCCG: 0.5% • Scenario: 3.9%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
New Mexico StateBoise StateCCG: 0.3% • Scenario: 42.1%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
83.3%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
83.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
76.4%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%80.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22