Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/24 | L24-29 | |
| 1 | 8/31 | W28-26 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L17-20 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L0-27 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W49-16 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:8% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:12% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:9% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:43% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:56% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:6% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:26% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:10% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 0% | 0% |
| 6-1 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 5-2 | 0.3% | 38.0% |
| 4-3 | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| 3-4 | 13.8% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 34.0% | 0% |
| 1-6 | 36.1% | 0% |
| 0-7 | 13.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
New Mexico
UNLV
Central Michigan
Wyoming
Washington StateCCG: 0.7% • Scenario: 0.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Washington StateCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 36.6%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22