Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L7-48 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L13-17 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L14-34 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | L17-44 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:29% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:43% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:9% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:65% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:48% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:43% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:13% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:9% |
Data from 2024-09-22
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 6-1 | 0.4% | 75.7% |
| 5-2 | 3.8% | 9.5% |
| 4-3 | 14.8% | 0% |
| 3-4 | 29.8% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 31.4% | 0% |
| 1-6 | 16.5% | 0% |
| 0-7 | 3.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-22
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-22
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.7% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.7% (+0.0%) | 0.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.5%) | 1.9% (+1.2%) | |
| 0.7% (-0.0%) | 0.7% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
New Mexico
UNLV
Central MichiganWyoming
Boise StateCCG: 3.2% • Scenario: 0.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WyomingCCG: 1.9% • Scenario: 28.6%
Data from 2024-09-22
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-22
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-22