UNLVRebels

3-0 T3rd (0-0) in MWC

Data from 2024-09-22 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

26.9%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	@HoustonHOU	W27-7
2	9/07	vsUtah TechUTU	W72-14
3	9/13	vsKansasKU(N)	W23-20
5	9/28	vsFresno StateFRES	Win prob:39%
6	10/04	vsSyracuseSYR	Win prob:78%
7	10/11	@Utah StateUSU	Win prob:85%
8	10/19	@Oregon StateORST	Win prob:32%
9	10/25	vsBoise StateBOIS	Win prob:45%
11	11/09	@Hawai'iHAW	Win prob:83%
12	11/16	vsSan Diego StateSDSU	Win prob:81%
13	11/22	@San José StateSJSU	Win prob:34%
14	11/30	vsNevadaNEV	Win prob:90%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-0	3.0%	100.0%
6-1	16.5%	97.8%
5-2	33.6%	23.0%
4-3	30.7%	0.1%
3-4	13.3%	0%
2-5	2.7%	0%
1-6	0.3%	0%
0-7	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

39.5%

32.3%

25.0%

1.9%

1.2%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
New MexicoUNM@New Mexico StateNMSU	26.9% (+0.1%)	26.9% (-0.0%)
Fresno StateFRES@UNLVUNLV	13.2% (-13.7%)	48.1% (+21.3%)
San Diego StateSDSU@Central MichiganCMU	27.0% (+0.1%)	26.7% (-0.2%)
Air ForceAF@WyomingWYO	26.5% (-0.4%)	27.8% (+0.9%)
Washington StateWSU@Boise StateBOIS	26.5% (-0.4%)	27.1% (+0.2%)

Best Winner Combination for

New Mexico

UNLV

Central Michigan

Wyoming

Washington State

CCG: 51.5% • Scenario: 0.4%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

UNLV

CCG: 48.1% • Scenario: 39.2%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.8%

Any 1 loss

98.5%

5.9%

100.0%

1.6%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

0.1%

99.5%

0.9%

99.4%

0.2%

97.4%

1.2%

96.3%

1.4%

Any 2 losses

64.7%

18.8%

100.0%

0.4%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.3%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

0.3%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.8%

0.4%

99.3%

0.3%

99.2%

2.0%

97.5%

3.2%

96.9%

0.4%

96.6%

0.4%

96.6%

2.5%

77.8%

<0.1%

77.3%

<0.1%

73.2%

<0.1%

69.2%

<0.1%

68.2%

<0.1%

64.7%

<0.1%

49.3%

0.1%

48.7%

0.2%

46.5%

0.1%

45.3%

0.2%

43.4%

0.3%

42.0%

0.3%

38.5%

0.2%

38.0%

0.2%

37.6%

0.3%

37.4%

0.2%

37.2%

0.4%

34.8%

0.2%

15.3%

1.8%

12.6%

2.2%

11.7%

1.5%

Any 3 losses

30.6%

23.0%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.3%

0.6%

97.0%

0.8%

95.7%

0.7%

84.6%

<0.1%

84.5%

<0.1%

83.3%

<0.1%

80.0%

<0.1%

78.4%

<0.1%

75.8%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

64.5%

<0.1%

63.6%

<0.1%

60.6%

<0.1%

57.7%

<0.1%

50.6%

0.5%

48.9%

0.5%

48.1%

0.3%

47.4%

<0.1%

46.2%

<0.1%

45.3%

<0.1%

44.0%

<0.1%

42.3%

0.4%

42.3%

<0.1%

42.1%

<0.1%

42.0%

0.2%

41.8%

<0.1%

41.7%

0.4%

41.3%

<0.1%

40.9%

0.6%

39.1%

0.3%

38.4%

0.6%

37.5%

<0.1%

37.5%

<0.1%

36.4%

0.8%

35.0%

0.6%

34.4%

0.5%

33.7%

<0.1%

25.4%

<0.1%

14.2%

3.9%

13.4%

0.5%

13.3%

0.4%

13.0%

4.8%

12.8%

3.2%

12.4%

0.7%

2.4%

<0.1%

2.0%

<0.1%

0.5%

0.2%

Any 4 losses

19.7%

5.8%

90.9%

<0.1%

72.7%

<0.1%

72.2%

<0.1%

70.0%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

56.5%

<0.1%

51.5%

0.1%

47.2%

0.1%

45.4%

0.1%

45.1%

0.1%

44.1%

<0.1%

42.3%

0.1%

42.2%

0.2%

42.1%

0.2%

39.8%

<0.1%

39.7%

0.2%

35.3%

0.1%

26.5%

0.1%

14.1%

1.1%

13.1%

1.4%

12.5%

<0.1%

10.6%

0.9%

2.4%

<0.1%

2.3%

<0.1%

1.5%

<0.1%

1.3%

<0.1%

1.2%

<0.1%

1.1%

<0.1%

1.0%

0.1%

0.7%

0.1%

0.7%

0.1%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com