BYUCougars

4-0 T1st (1-0) in B12

Data from 2024-09-22 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

16.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsSouthern IllinoisSIU	W41-13
2	9/06	@SMUSMU	W18-15
3	9/14	@WyomingWYO	W34-14
4	9/21	vsKansas StateKSU	W38-9
5	9/28	@BaylorBAY	Win prob:58%
7	10/12	vsArizonaARIZ	Win prob:48%
8	10/18	vsOklahoma StateOKST	Win prob:59%
9	10/26	@UCFUCF	Win prob:36%
11	11/09	@UtahUTAH	Win prob:38%
12	11/16	vsKansasKU	Win prob:58%
13	11/23	@Arizona StateASU	Win prob:56%
14	11/30	vsHoustonHOU	Win prob:84%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0.6%	100.0%
8-1	4.6%	97.9%
7-2	15.1%	64.3%
6-3	26.2%	6.4%
5-4	27.6%	0.0%
4-5	17.8%	0%
3-6	6.7%	0%
2-7	1.4%	0%
1-8	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

34.0%

17.5%

17.0%

16.1%

15.3%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
BYUBYU@BaylorBAY	22.5% (+6.1%)	8.0% (-8.4%)
ColoradoCOLO@UCFUCF	17.2% (+0.8%)	16.3% (-0.1%)
CincinnatiCIN@Texas TechTTU	17.2% (+0.8%)	16.1% (-0.3%)
Iowa StateISU@HoustonHOU	15.9% (-0.6%)	19.7% (+3.3%)
ArizonaARIZ@UtahUTAH	16.6% (+0.2%)	16.3% (-0.1%)
Oklahoma StateOKST@Kansas StateKSU	16.8% (+0.3%)	16.3% (-0.1%)
TCUTCU@KansasKU	15.9% (-0.5%)	16.8% (+0.3%)

Best Winner Combination for

BYU

Colorado

Cincinnati

Houston

Arizona

Kansas State

Kansas

CCG: 38.7% • Scenario: 0.1%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

BYU

CCG: 22.5% • Scenario: 58.0%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.6%

Any 1 loss

97.9%

4.6%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

0.4%

98.3%

0.5%

98.0%

0.4%

97.9%

0.7%

97.8%

0.4%

97.4%

1.0%

97.0%

1.0%

Any 2 losses

64.3%

15.1%

83.9%

<0.1%

83.7%

<0.1%

81.1%

<0.1%

81.0%

0.3%

80.5%

0.4%

80.3%

0.3%

79.7%

0.3%

78.3%

0.4%

77.8%

0.4%

77.7%

<0.1%

69.9%

0.8%

69.3%

0.5%

69.0%

0.7%

68.5%

0.2%

68.2%

0.8%

67.5%

0.8%

67.0%

0.7%

66.7%

0.5%

65.7%

0.1%

65.4%

0.9%

65.1%

0.8%

64.5%

0.4%

63.9%

0.5%

63.4%

0.9%

59.6%

0.2%

51.9%

1.7%

49.0%

1.1%

48.4%

1.2%

Any 3 losses

6.4%

26.3%

25.0%

<0.1%

19.0%

<0.1%

15.7%

<0.1%

15.6%

0.3%

15.4%

<0.1%

12.5%

0.2%

12.5%

<0.1%

12.2%

0.3%

12.1%

0.6%

11.8%

<0.1%

10.7%

0.2%

10.5%

0.6%

10.4%

0.3%

10.2%

0.6%

10.1%

0.2%

9.9%

0.5%

9.9%

0.3%

9.6%

0.1%

9.1%

0.5%

8.9%

0.1%

8.4%

0.1%

8.3%

0.5%

8.1%

<0.1%

8.0%

0.1%

7.9%

0.3%

7.6%

0.4%

7.1%

0.6%

7.1%

0.4%

6.6%

<0.1%

6.5%

0.5%

6.4%

0.4%

6.3%

<0.1%

6.3%

0.2%

6.2%

0.8%

6.2%

1.4%

5.8%

0.8%

5.7%

0.1%

5.7%

0.2%

5.7%

0.4%

5.7%

0.8%

5.5%

0.6%

5.3%

0.6%

5.2%

0.8%

5.2%

0.2%

5.2%

0.8%

5.1%

1.2%

5.1%

1.3%

4.5%

0.2%

4.5%

0.9%

4.2%

0.9%

4.1%

0.6%

4.0%

0.8%

3.8%

0.6%

3.4%

<0.1%

3.1%

1.4%

3.1%

1.9%

0.9%

0.1%

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-22 • SportsSimulate.com