Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-29
Conference Standings
| T1 |  LibertyLIB | 2-0 | 4-0 | 80.8% | |
| T1 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 1-0 | 4-1 | 34.5% | |
| T1 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 1-0 | 3-2 | 27.7% | |
| T1 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 1-0 | 2-3 | 3.4% | |
| T5 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 0-0 | 1-3 | 31.8% | |
| T5 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 0-0 | 0-4 | 18.5% | |
| T5 |  UTEPUTEP | 0-1 | 0-4 | 1.1% | |
| T5 |  Louisiana TechLT | 0-1 | 1-3 | 1.1% | |
| T5 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 0-2 | 1-4 | 0.7% | |
| T5 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-1 | 1-4 | 0.3% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 80.8%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 79.8% (-1.0%) | 83.5% (+2.7%) | |
| 80.5% (-0.3%) | 81.2% (+0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UTEPJacksonville StateCCG: 83.6% • Scenario: 13.7%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UTEPCCG: 83.5% • Scenario: 26.3%
Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LibertyLIB | 100% | 99.6% | 71.3% | 9.7% | - | 80.8% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | 100% | 99.1% | 66.2% | 9.2% | <0.1% | 34.5% |
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 98.9% | 65.8% | 9.4% | <0.1% | 31.8% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 99.0% | 62.7% | 8.2% | <0.1% | 27.7% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | 100% | 98.9% | 67.7% | 9.3% | <0.1% | 18.5% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | 100% | 99.3% | 59.5% | 6.7% | <0.1% | 3.4% |
| UTEPUTEP | - | 100% | 58.6% | 7.6% | <0.1% | 1.1% |
| Louisiana TechLT | - | 100% | 71.1% | 9.2% | <0.1% | 1.1% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | - | 55.4% | 7.1% | <0.1% | 0.7% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | - | 100% | 60.4% | 6.5% | <0.1% | 0.3% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LibertyLIB(2-0) | 21.3% | 38.9% | 27.7% | 10.0% | 1.9% | 0.2% | <0.1% | - | - | 6.7 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(1-0) | 2.0% | 11.8% | 27.0% | 31.0% | 19.9% | 6.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% | - | 5.2 |
| Jacksonville StateJXST(0-0) | 1.6% | 10.5% | 25.6% | 31.3% | 21.0% | 8.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 5.1 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(1-0) | 1.1% | 8.6% | 24.7% | 32.7% | 22.8% | 8.5% | 1.6% | 0.1% | - | 5.0 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(0-0) | 0.6% | 4.9% | 15.5% | 27.1% | 27.5% | 17.0% | 6.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 4.4 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(1-0) | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.5% | 14.0% | 29.1% | 31.7% | 17.6% | 3.7% | - | 3.4 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(0-2) | - | - | 0.5% | 5.1% | 18.7% | 32.2% | 28.6% | 12.7% | 2.1% | 2.7 |
| UTEPUTEP(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 1.0% | 6.0% | 17.3% | 29.8% | 28.6% | 14.3% | 2.9% | 2.7 |
| Louisiana TechLT(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.8% | 5.1% | 17.0% | 30.3% | 29.6% | 14.3% | 2.7% | 2.6 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.5% | 10.5% | 24.6% | 33.0% | 22.7% | 6.4% | 2.2 |
Data from 2024-09-29