Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
18.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L16-28 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L10-34 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L10-31 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L13-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:48% | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:70% | |
| 9 | 10/23 | Win prob:30% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:39% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:67% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:50% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:74% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:65% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.6% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 4.9% | 98.9% |
| 6-2 | 15.5% | 67.7% |
| 5-3 | 27.1% | 9.3% |
| 4-4 | 27.5% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 17.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 6.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 17.8% (-0.7%) | 20.4% (+1.9%) | |
| 7.8% (-10.7%) | 29.9% (+11.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UTEPKennesaw StateCCG: 33.1% • Scenario: 12.6%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Kennesaw StateCCG: 29.9% • Scenario: 48.2%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.6%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29