LibertyFlames

4-0 T1st (2-0) in CUSA

Data from 2024-09-29 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

80.8%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsCampbellCAM	W41-24
2	9/07	@New Mexico StateNMSU	W30-24
3	9/14	vsUTEPUTEP	W28-10
4	9/21	vsEast CarolinaECU	W35-24
5	9/28	@App StateAPP	Win prob:72%
7	10/08	vsFlorida InternationalFIU	Win prob:90%
9	10/23	@Kennesaw StateKENN	Win prob:70%
10	10/30	vsJacksonville StateJXST	Win prob:75%
11	11/09	@Middle TennesseeMTSU	Win prob:88%
12	11/16	@MassachusettsMASS	Win prob:94%
13	11/23	vsWestern KentuckyWKU	Win prob:79%
14	11/29	@Sam HoustonSHSU	Win prob:63%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	21.3%	100.0%
7-1	38.9%	99.6%
6-2	27.7%	71.3%
5-3	10.0%	9.7%
4-4	1.9%	0%
3-5	0.2%	0%
2-6	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

30.0%

27.9%

24.1%

15.1%

Florida International

2.9%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Sam HoustonSHSU@UTEPUTEP	79.8% (-1.0%)	83.5% (+2.7%)
Jacksonville StateJXST@Kennesaw StateKENN	80.5% (-0.3%)	81.2% (+0.4%)

Best Winner Combination for

UTEP

Jacksonville State

CCG: 83.6% • Scenario: 13.7%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

UTEP

CCG: 83.5% • Scenario: 26.3%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

14.4%

Any 1 loss

99.7%

32.7%

100.0%

1.9%

100.0%

5.5%

100.0%

0.9%

99.9%

1.6%

99.7%

6.0%

99.6%

3.8%

99.6%

8.4%

99.4%

4.7%

Any 2 losses

82.5%

31.2%

100.0%

0.7%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

0.6%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

0.4%

99.8%

2.4%

99.8%

0.4%

99.7%

1.5%

99.7%

0.6%

99.6%

3.2%

99.4%

0.3%

99.2%

1.8%

99.2%

0.2%

96.4%

0.2%

92.3%

0.8%

91.8%

0.6%

90.3%

0.5%

88.8%

1.1%

88.7%

0.7%

85.7%

0.4%

83.9%

0.9%

82.9%

0.5%

69.7%

3.4%

68.8%

2.0%

68.5%

1.7%

58.8%

2.7%

57.5%

1.2%

57.2%

2.2%

Any 3 losses

46.0%

15.8%

100.0%

0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.3%

0.1%

99.1%

0.1%

98.1%

<0.1%

95.8%

<0.1%

95.0%

<0.1%

93.9%

<0.1%

92.6%

0.2%

91.8%

0.4%

91.8%

0.3%

88.2%

<0.1%

85.9%

0.2%

85.7%

0.2%

85.4%

<0.1%

85.1%

0.1%

83.2%

0.2%

82.9%

<0.1%

82.0%

0.3%

81.3%

<0.1%

79.3%

<0.1%

72.9%

0.2%

70.7%

0.1%

69.6%

0.8%

69.0%

1.3%

67.4%

0.6%

67.3%

0.1%

62.0%

0.1%

59.2%

0.2%

59.1%

1.0%

55.9%

<0.1%

55.8%

0.8%

54.6%

0.5%

32.0%

0.1%

31.6%

<0.1%

28.4%

<0.1%

19.2%

0.2%

16.8%

0.2%

16.8%

0.1%

16.1%

0.5%

15.4%

0.2%

13.6%

0.3%

12.9%

0.1%

12.9%

0.3%

12.2%

0.1%

12.1%

0.2%

11.9%

0.4%

11.3%

0.3%

8.0%

0.2%

5.2%

0.5%

4.6%

0.9%

4.5%

1.2%

2.7%

0.7%

Any 4 losses

18.6%

3.5%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

95.2%

<0.1%

93.8%

<0.1%

92.9%

<0.1%

92.6%

<0.1%

85.7%

<0.1%

81.0%

<0.1%

78.3%

<0.1%

75.9%

<0.1%

70.3%

<0.1%

67.9%

<0.1%

50.6%

<0.1%

42.9%

<0.1%

40.9%

<0.1%

37.9%

<0.1%

37.5%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

32.4%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

22.7%

<0.1%

22.2%

<0.1%

19.4%

<0.1%

19.4%

0.1%

17.6%

<0.1%

16.8%

0.1%

15.9%

<0.1%

15.8%

<0.1%

15.4%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

13.6%

0.1%

13.3%

<0.1%

13.1%

<0.1%

12.5%

0.2%

12.3%

0.1%

11.5%

<0.1%

10.6%

<0.1%

10.0%

0.1%

9.9%

<0.1%

8.1%

<0.1%

7.3%

0.1%

7.1%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

6.2%

0.4%

6.0%

0.2%

5.6%

<0.1%

4.8%

<0.1%

4.1%

0.5%

3.9%

<0.1%

2.4%

0.3%

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-29 • SportsSimulate.com