Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
27.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L0-63 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-0 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W49-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W26-21 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L20-21 | |
| 7 | 10/10 | Win prob:82% | |
| 8 | 10/16 | Win prob:38% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:61% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:66% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:80% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:21% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:52% |
Data from 2024-09-29
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 8.6% | 99.0% |
| 6-2 | 24.7% | 62.7% |
| 5-3 | 32.7% | 8.2% |
| 4-4 | 22.8% | 0.0% |
| 3-5 | 8.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-29
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-29
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 26.4% (-1.3%) | 31.3% (+3.6%) | |
| 27.1% (-0.7%) | 28.4% (+0.7%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UTEP
Kennesaw StateCCG: 32.5% • Scenario: 12.6%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UTEPCCG: 31.3% • Scenario: 26.3%
Data from 2024-09-29
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.1%Any 1 loss
99.0%
8.6%
100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.7%
99.7%
0.3%
99.1%
1.7%
98.7%
4.1%
98.7%
1.0%Any 2 losses
62.8%
24.7%99.1%
0.1%98.4%
<0.1%97.4%
0.1%89.4%
0.4%88.5%
0.1%88.3%
0.9%87.0%
2.1%86.6%
0.2%86.1%
0.2%85.5%
1.0%83.4%
0.9%81.2%
0.4%79.6%
0.4%79.4%
0.5%78.1%
0.3%66.6%
1.2%63.7%
0.7%61.0%
2.6%55.8%
1.7%47.9%
6.8%46.0%
3.9%Data from 2024-09-29
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-29