Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-13
Conference Standings
| T1 |  LibertyLIB | 3-0 | 5-0 | 68.2% | |
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 2-0 | 3-3 | 73.7% | |
| T1 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 2-0 | 5-1 | 29.2% | |
| T1 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 2-0 | 4-2 | 24.9% | |
| T5 |  Louisiana TechLT | 1-1 | 2-3 | 1.7% | |
| T5 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 1-1 | 2-4 | 1.3% | |
| T7 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 0-1 | 0-5 | 1.1% | |
| T7 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 0-2 | 1-5 | <0.1% | |
| T7 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 0-3 | 1-5 | <0.1% | |
| T7 |  UTEPUTEP | 0-3 | 0-6 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 73.7%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 73.7% (-0.0%) | 73.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 73.6% (-0.1%) | 73.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 73.0% (-0.7%) | 74.2% (+0.5%) | |
| 73.4% (-0.3%) | 74.1% (+0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Middle TennesseeUTEPSam HoustonNew Mexico StateCCG: 75.7% • Scenario: 3.3%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Sam HoustonCCG: 74.2% • Scenario: 59.2%
Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 97.8% | 46.2% | 2.5% | - | 73.7% |
| LibertyLIB | 100% | 97.5% | 45.9% | 2.9% | <0.1% | 68.2% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | 100% | 95.5% | 39.7% | 1.4% | - | 29.2% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 96.3% | 35.6% | 1.0% | - | 24.9% |
| Louisiana TechLT | - | 99.1% | 46.5% | 1.2% | - | 1.7% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | - | 95.4% | 24.8% | 0.8% | - | 1.3% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | - | 97.7% | 44.2% | 1.9% | - | 1.1% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | - | - | 75.0% | 2.1% | - | <0.1% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | - | - | 0.7% | - | <0.1% |
| UTEPUTEP | - | - | - | 0.4% | - | - |
Data from 2024-10-13
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST(2-0) | 20.2% | 41.1% | 28.4% | 9.0% | 1.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | - | 6.7 |
| LibertyLIB(3-0) | 16.0% | 38.1% | 32.1% | 11.8% | 1.9% | <0.1% | - | - | - | 6.5 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(2-0) | 2.1% | 14.4% | 32.5% | 31.9% | 15.3% | 3.5% | 0.3% | - | - | 5.4 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(2-0) | 1.7% | 12.2% | 31.1% | 34.6% | 16.6% | 3.5% | 0.3% | - | - | 5.4 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(1-1) | - | 0.2% | 3.8% | 17.8% | 34.5% | 30.0% | 11.9% | 1.8% | - | 3.7 |
| Louisiana TechLT(1-1) | - | 0.2% | 2.7% | 14.7% | 33.5% | 33.1% | 13.9% | 2.0% | - | 3.5 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(0-1) | - | 0.1% | 1.7% | 9.3% | 23.3% | 32.0% | 23.4% | 8.9% | 1.3% | 3.0 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(0-3) | - | - | - | 0.8% | 7.5% | 24.6% | 36.2% | 24.6% | 6.2% | 2.1 |
| UTEPUTEP(0-3) | - | - | - | 0.8% | 7.0% | 23.3% | 35.9% | 26.2% | 6.9% | 2.0 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(0-2) | - | - | <0.1% | 0.3% | 3.5% | 16.5% | 34.2% | 33.7% | 11.8% | 1.7 |
Data from 2024-10-13