Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L16-28 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L10-34 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L10-31 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L13-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L24-63 | |
| 8 | 10/15 | Win prob:65% | |
| 9 | 10/23 | Win prob:20% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:21% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:63% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:32% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:60% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:41% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0.1% | 97.7% |
| 6-2 | 1.7% | 44.2% |
| 5-3 | 9.3% | 1.9% |
| 4-4 | 23.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 32.0% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 23.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 8.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 1.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5% (+0.4%) | 0.3% (-0.8%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.0%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kennesaw State
Florida International
Western Kentucky
New Mexico StateCCG: 1.6% • Scenario: 6.5%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Kennesaw StateCCG: 1.5% • Scenario: 65.4%
Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13