Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
24.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L0-63 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-0 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W49-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W26-21 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L20-21 | |
| 7 | 10/10 | W44-17 | |
| 8 | 10/16 | Win prob:41% | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:79% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:80% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:78% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:26% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:32% |
Data from 2024-10-13
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 12.2% | 96.3% |
| 6-2 | 31.1% | 35.6% |
| 5-3 | 34.6% | 1.0% |
| 4-4 | 16.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 3.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 24.9% (+0.0%) | 24.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 24.8% (-0.1%) | 25.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 42.5% (+17.6%) | 12.7% (-12.1%) | |
| 24.7% (-0.1%) | 25.1% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Middle Tennessee
Florida InternationalWestern Kentucky
New Mexico StateCCG: 43.7% • Scenario: 3.4%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Western KentuckyCCG: 42.5% • Scenario: 40.8%
Data from 2024-10-13
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.7%Any 1 loss
96.3%
12.2%100.0%
0.4%
100.0%
0.4%
99.8%
0.4%
97.8%
2.5%
95.3%
4.9%
95.3%
3.5%Any 2 losses
35.6%
31.1%95.3%
0.1%94.4%
0.1%90.8%
0.1%77.9%
0.9%71.5%
1.2%69.5%
0.7%67.2%
1.0%66.3%
0.7%66.1%
0.9%65.9%
0.7%64.6%
1.3%60.8%
1.4%29.7%
5.1%29.6%
7.0%13.1%
10.0%Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13