LibertyFlames

5-0 T1st (3-0) in CUSA

Data from 2024-10-13 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

68.2%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsCampbellCAM	W41-24
2	9/07	@New Mexico StateNMSU	W30-24
3	9/14	vsUTEPUTEP	W28-10
4	9/21	vsEast CarolinaECU	W35-24
5	9/28	@App StateAPP	Win prob:76%
7	10/08	vsFlorida InternationalFIU	W31-24
9	10/23	@Kennesaw StateKENN	Win prob:80%
10	10/30	vsJacksonville StateJXST	Win prob:50%
11	11/09	@Middle TennesseeMTSU	Win prob:91%
12	11/16	@MassachusettsMASS	Win prob:95%
13	11/23	vsWestern KentuckyWKU	Win prob:74%
14	11/29	@Sam HoustonSHSU	Win prob:59%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	16.0%	100.0%
7-1	38.1%	97.5%
6-2	32.1%	45.9%
5-3	11.8%	2.9%
4-4	1.9%	0.1%
3-5	0.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

66.5%

15.7%

15.6%

1.2%

Florida International

1.0%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Kennesaw StateKENN@Middle TennesseeMTSU	67.9% (-0.4%)	68.9% (+0.7%)
Florida InternationalFIU@UTEPUTEP	68.1% (-0.1%)	68.4% (+0.2%)
Western KentuckyWKU@Sam HoustonSHSU	69.3% (+1.1%)	67.5% (-0.8%)
Louisiana TechLT@New Mexico StateNMSU	67.9% (-0.3%)	68.7% (+0.5%)

Best Winner Combination for

Middle Tennessee

UTEP

Western Kentucky

New Mexico State

CCG: 71.3% • Scenario: 2.2%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Western Kentucky

CCG: 69.3% • Scenario: 40.8%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

11.4%

Any 1 loss

97.8%

31.6%

100.0%

3.8%

100.0%

1.1%

100.0%

0.7%

100.0%

2.8%

97.5%

11.3%

97.1%

4.0%

96.5%

8.1%

Any 2 losses

62.0%

33.6%

100.0%

0.9%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

0.4%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.5%

0.2%

98.0%

0.3%

97.6%

0.2%

97.5%

3.7%

97.5%

0.6%

96.9%

1.3%

96.5%

2.6%

95.3%

0.4%

88.9%

1.1%

80.7%

2.8%

71.0%

0.4%

68.4%

0.7%

65.4%

1.0%

64.4%

1.9%

29.9%

3.9%

29.4%

2.8%

28.8%

8.1%

Any 3 losses

27.0%

17.6%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

99.0%

0.1%

96.1%

0.2%

95.4%

<0.1%

93.5%

0.1%

89.2%

0.4%

83.3%

<0.1%

83.0%

0.9%

81.8%

<0.1%

78.0%

0.2%

74.8%

0.1%

68.9%

0.3%

68.4%

<0.1%

65.8%

0.1%

65.2%

<0.1%

64.8%

0.7%

63.5%

0.3%

35.3%

0.1%

32.0%

0.2%

30.2%

0.9%

29.8%

0.4%

29.8%

2.5%

28.4%

1.4%

17.1%

0.3%

8.1%

0.1%

7.9%

0.2%

5.3%

0.4%

4.2%

0.7%

3.6%

1.0%

2.5%

1.9%

2.0%

0.3%

1.4%

0.7%

0.8%

2.9%

Any 4 losses

8.4%

3.6%

100.0%

<0.1%

92.0%

<0.1%

86.5%

<0.1%

76.5%

<0.1%

74.1%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

56.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

27.5%

<0.1%

26.9%

0.1%

25.7%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

13.2%

<0.1%

10.0%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

7.7%

<0.1%

5.4%

<0.1%

5.0%

0.1%

4.7%

0.3%

4.6%

0.2%

2.7%

0.1%

2.0%

0.3%

1.7%

<0.1%

1.2%

0.7%

0.9%

0.1%

0.8%

0.1%

0.8%

0.9%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com