Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-13
Conference Standings
| T1 |  UNLVUNLV | 2-0 | 5-1 | 77.3% | |
| T1 |  Boise StateBOIS | 2-0 | 5-1 | 72.4% | |
| T1 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 2-0 | 3-3 | 6.3% | |
| T1 |  Colorado StateCSU | 1-0 | 3-3 | 4.1% | |
| 5 |  San José StateSJSU | 2-1 | 4-2 | 21.4% | |
| T6 |  Fresno StateFRES | 1-1 | 3-3 | 16.4% | |
| T6 |  New MexicoUNM | 1-1 | 2-4 | 1.1% | |
| T6 |  WyomingWYO | 1-1 | 1-5 | 0.8% | |
| T9 |  NevadaNEV | 0-1 | 3-4 | 0.2% | |
| T9 |  Utah StateUSU | 0-2 | 1-5 | <0.1% | |
| T9 |  Hawai'iHAW | 0-2 | 2-4 | <0.1% | |
| T9 |  Air ForceAF | 0-3 | 1-5 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-13
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-13
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 77.3%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 77.3% (-0.0%) | 77.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 80.6% (+3.3%) | 76.9% (-0.5%) | |
| 76.6% (-0.7%) | 78.3% (+0.9%) | |
| 77.4% (+0.1%) | 77.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 76.2% (-1.1%) | 78.0% (+0.7%) | |
| 76.4% (-0.9%) | 80.1% (+2.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UNLVWyomingUtah StateHawai'iColorado StateNevadaCCG: 92.9% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
NevadaCCG: 80.1% • Scenario: 24.9%
Data from 2024-10-13
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNLVUNLV | 100% | 99.6% | 39.7% | 0.6% | 77.3% |
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 93.4% | 23.3% | 0.3% | 72.4% |
| San José StateSJSU | - | 99.9% | 49.4% | 0.3% | 21.4% |
| Fresno StateFRES | - | 69.1% | 8.0% | <0.1% | 16.4% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | 100% | 83.1% | 5.8% | <0.1% | 6.3% |
| Colorado StateCSU | 100% | 46.1% | 2.3% | - | 4.1% |
| New MexicoUNM | - | 45.6% | 0.9% | - | 1.1% |
| WyomingWYO | - | 86.5% | 17.5% | <0.1% | 0.8% |
| NevadaNEV | - | 100% | 39.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% |
| Utah StateUSU | - | - | 7.9% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Hawai'iHAW | - | - | 29.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
| Air ForceAF | - | - | - | <0.1% | - |
Data from 2024-10-13
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | 3-4 | 2-5 | 1-6 | 0-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS(2-0) | 24.0% | 45.3% | 25.6% | 4.7% | 0.3% | <0.1% | - | - | 5.9 |
| UNLVUNLV(2-0) | 22.2% | 44.5% | 27.3% | 5.5% | 0.4% | <0.1% | - | - | 5.8 |
| Fresno StateFRES(1-1) | - | 19.0% | 40.5% | 29.3% | 9.8% | 1.4% | <0.1% | - | 4.7 |
| San José StateSJSU(2-1) | - | 7.0% | 29.0% | 40.7% | 21.0% | 2.3% | - | - | 4.2 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(2-0) | 0.2% | 5.1% | 30.9% | 40.5% | 20.0% | 3.3% | - | - | 4.2 |
| Colorado StateCSU(1-0) | 0.7% | 6.4% | 21.5% | 33.6% | 26.5% | 10.0% | 1.4% | - | 3.9 |
| New MexicoUNM(1-1) | - | 2.1% | 13.0% | 29.6% | 33.3% | 18.1% | 3.9% | - | 3.4 |
| WyomingWYO(1-1) | - | 0.2% | 3.5% | 19.8% | 39.8% | 29.9% | 6.8% | - | 2.8 |
| NevadaNEV(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.4% | 5.2% | 21.7% | 37.3% | 27.6% | 7.8% | 1.9 |
| Utah StateUSU(0-2) | - | - | 0.6% | 5.6% | 20.3% | 35.1% | 29.3% | 9.1% | 1.9 |
| Air ForceAF(0-3) | - | - | - | 3.5% | 19.9% | 38.1% | 30.5% | 8.1% | 1.8 |
| Hawai'iHAW(0-2) | - | - | 0.1% | 2.7% | 17.2% | 37.1% | 32.8% | 10.1% | 1.7 |
Data from 2024-10-13