UNLVRebels

5-1 T1st (2-0) in MWC

Data from 2024-10-13 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

77.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	@HoustonHOU	W27-7
2	9/07	vsUtah TechUTU	W72-14
3	9/13	vsKansasKU(N)	W23-20
5	9/28	vsFresno StateFRES	W59-14
6	10/04	vsSyracuseSYR	L41-44
7	10/11	@Utah StateUSU	W50-34
8	10/19	@Oregon StateORST	Win prob:53%
9	10/25	vsBoise StateBOIS	Win prob:51%
11	11/09	@Hawai'iHAW	Win prob:91%
12	11/16	vsSan Diego StateSDSU	Win prob:90%
13	11/22	@San José StateSJSU	Win prob:57%
14	11/30	vsNevadaNEV	Win prob:93%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-0	22.2%	100.0%
6-1	44.5%	99.6%
5-2	27.3%	39.7%
4-3	5.5%	0.6%
3-4	0.4%	0%
2-5	0.0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

67.7%

13.7%

12.6%

3.6%

2.4%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
UNLVUNLV@Oregon StateORST	77.3% (-0.0%)	77.3% (+0.0%)
WyomingWYO@San José StateSJSU	80.6% (+3.3%)	76.9% (-0.5%)
New MexicoUNM@Utah StateUSU	76.6% (-0.7%)	78.3% (+0.9%)
Hawai'iHAW@Washington StateWSU	77.4% (+0.1%)	77.3% (-0.0%)
Colorado StateCSU@Air ForceAF	76.2% (-1.1%)	78.0% (+0.7%)
Fresno StateFRES@NevadaNEV	76.4% (-0.9%)	80.1% (+2.8%)

Best Winner Combination for

UNLV

Wyoming

Utah State

Hawai'i

Colorado State

Nevada

CCG: 92.9% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Nevada

CCG: 80.1% • Scenario: 24.9%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

11.9%

Any 1 loss

99.8%

34.0%

100.0%

10.3%

100.0%

1.2%

100.0%

0.8%

99.9%

9.1%

99.8%

1.4%

99.4%

11.1%

Any 2 losses

74.8%

35.5%

100.0%

1.1%

100.0%

0.7%

99.8%

7.8%

99.4%

1.2%

99.2%

9.9%

81.7%

<0.1%

68.2%

<0.1%

67.7%

1.1%

63.6%

0.8%

61.9%

0.1%

58.4%

0.6%

58.3%

0.9%

40.2%

1.1%

38.9%

1.3%

29.8%

8.7%

Any 3 losses

36.3%

13.9%

86.8%

<0.1%

65.0%

0.7%

64.0%

0.9%

61.0%

0.8%

54.1%

0.1%

53.3%

<0.1%

51.9%

0.6%

42.4%

0.8%

34.5%

1.1%

30.8%

7.4%

3.4%

<0.1%

1.5%

<0.1%

1.0%

0.1%

0.8%

0.1%

0.7%

0.8%

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-13 • SportsSimulate.com