ArmyBlack Knights

7-0 T1st (6-0) in AAC

Data from 2024-10-20 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

72.5%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsLehighLEH	W42-7
2	9/07	@Florida AtlanticFAU	W24-7
4	9/21	vsRiceRICE	W37-14
5	9/26	@TempleTEM	W42-14
6	10/05	@TulsaTLSA	W49-7
7	10/12	vsUABUAB	W44-10
8	10/19	vsEast CarolinaECU	W45-28
10	11/02	vsAir ForceAF	Win prob:91%
11	11/09	@North TexasUNT	Win prob:69%
13	11/23	vsNotre DameND(N)	Win prob:11%
14	11/30	vsUTSAUTSA	Win prob:86%
	12/14	vsNavyNAVY(N)	Win prob:55%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	32.6%	100.0%
8-1	46.8%	72.7%
7-2	18.6%	31.4%
6-3	2.0%	0.8%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

52.1%

39.2%

8.2%

0.6%

0.0%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
RiceRICE@UConnCONN	72.5% (+0.1%)	72.4% (-0.0%)
TulaneTULN@North TexasUNT	70.9% (-1.6%)	78.3% (+5.9%)
UTSAUTSA@TulsaTLSA	72.5% (+0.1%)	72.2% (-0.3%)
CharlotteCLT@MemphisMEM	76.5% (+4.0%)	72.2% (-0.3%)
Notre DameND@NavyNAVY	72.5% (+0.0%)	72.2% (-0.3%)
TempleTEM@East CarolinaECU	72.3% (-0.2%)	72.5% (+0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Rice

North Texas

Tulsa

Charlotte

Navy

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

North Texas

CCG: 78.3% • Scenario: 21.3%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

3.2%

Any 1 loss

96.3%

31.2%

100.0%

26.6%

100.0%

2.5%

100.0%

0.3%

41.1%

0.5%

35.6%

1.4%

Any 2 losses

72.4%

43.1%

100.0%

21.8%

100.0%

2.5%

100.0%

0.2%

44.5%

0.1%

41.7%

<0.1%

39.6%

4.5%

35.9%

0.4%

35.6%

12.1%

34.8%

1.1%

1.9%

0.3%

Any 3 losses

39.1%

19.2%

100.0%

2.1%

42.4%

<0.1%

40.0%

<0.1%

39.8%

3.6%

39.0%

0.4%

36.2%

1.2%

34.8%

9.7%

1.0%

0.2%

0.8%

1.9%

Any 4 losses

14.7%

3.1%

38.6%

0.4%

32.8%

0.9%

1.1%

0.2%

0.7%

1.6%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com