NavyMidshipmen

6-0 T1st (4-0) in AAC

Data from 2024-10-20 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

51.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/31	vsBucknellBUCK	W49-21
2	9/07	vsTempleTEM	W38-11
4	9/21	vsMemphisMEM	W56-44
5	9/28	@UABUAB	W41-18
6	10/05	@Air ForceAF	W34-7
8	10/19	vsCharlotteCLT	W51-17
9	10/26	vsNotre DameND(N)	Win prob:9%
10	11/02	@RiceRICE	Win prob:86%
11	11/09	@South FloridaUSF	Win prob:79%
12	11/16	vsTulaneTULN	Win prob:40%
14	11/29	@East CarolinaECU	Win prob:82%
	12/14	vsArmyARMY(N)	Win prob:45%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	10.2%	100.0%
8-1	33.9%	73.6%
7-2	37.4%	41.9%
6-3	15.7%	2.9%
5-4	2.6%	0%
4-5	0.2%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

55.3%

36.7%

6.3%

1.6%

0.0%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
RiceRICE@UConnCONN	51.3% (+0.1%)	51.2% (-0.0%)
TulaneTULN@North TexasUNT	50.2% (-1.1%)	55.2% (+3.9%)
UTSAUTSA@TulsaTLSA	51.2% (-0.0%)	51.5% (+0.2%)
CharlotteCLT@MemphisMEM	53.3% (+2.1%)	51.1% (-0.1%)
Notre DameND@NavyNAVY	51.3% (+0.0%)	51.1% (-0.1%)
TempleTEM@East CarolinaECU	50.9% (-0.4%)	51.4% (+0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for

Rice

Tulane

Tulsa

Charlotte

Navy

Temple

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

North Texas

CCG: 55.2% • Scenario: 21.3%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.9%

Any 1 loss

93.5%

12.2%

100.0%

9.3%

100.0%

1.1%

100.0%

0.2%

99.6%

0.2%

98.5%

0.1%

39.2%

1.3%

Any 2 losses

71.4%

33.9%

100.0%

11.3%

100.0%

0.2%

100.0%

0.3%

100.0%

0.2%

99.8%

2.4%

99.7%

2.1%

99.5%

1.4%

41.0%

13.8%

40.0%

1.7%

20.0%

<0.1%

15.0%

<0.1%

13.0%

<0.1%

2.8%

0.2%

0.7%

0.3%

Any 3 losses

40.7%

35.3%

99.7%

1.7%

99.7%

3.0%

99.4%

2.4%

40.5%

17.1%

30.3%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

21.5%

0.5%

18.8%

0.3%

18.2%

<0.1%

17.7%

0.4%

3.1%

0.2%

1.9%

0.4%

1.2%

3.7%

1.1%

0.4%

0.9%

2.1%

0.8%

3.0%

Any 4 losses

3.2%

12.5%

20.2%

0.7%

19.3%

0.5%

17.4%

0.4%

1.1%

3.7%

1.1%

2.8%

0.9%

4.5%

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-10-20 • SportsSimulate.com