Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
60.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W52-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L27-34 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | L19-34 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W41-33 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | W45-10 | |
| 6 | 10/05 | W71-20 | |
| 8 | 10/19 | W24-10 | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:79% | |
| 10 | 10/31 | Win prob:94% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:98% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:60% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:74% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 32.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 44.1% | 64.1% |
| 6-2 | 20.2% | 2.3% |
| 5-3 | 3.4% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 60.9% (+0.1%) | 60.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 65.9% (+5.1%) | 42.1% (-18.7%) | |
| 60.8% (-0.1%) | 61.2% (+0.4%) | |
| 65.2% (+4.4%) | 60.6% (-0.3%) | |
| 60.8% (-0.1%) | 61.4% (+0.5%) | |
| 61.4% (+0.6%) | 60.7% (-0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
RiceTulane
Tulsa
Memphis
Navy
TempleCCG: 85.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TulaneCCG: 65.9% • Scenario: 78.7%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
32.1%Any 1 loss
64.1%
44.1%
100.0%
8.7%100.0%
0.7%
99.8%
1.9%64.1%
11.5%45.1%
21.4%Any 2 losses
2.3%
20.2%40.5%
<0.1%26.8%
0.2%21.7%
0.6%4.0%
0.4%3.5%
0.3%3.0%
0.7%2.6%
1.3%2.5%
3.1%1.1%
5.9%0.6%
7.7%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20