Conference USA Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-10-20
Conference Standings
| T1 |  LibertyLIB | 3-0 | 5-0 | 68.8% | |
| T1 |  Western KentuckyWKU | 3-0 | 5-2 | 51.0% | |
| T1 |  Jacksonville StateJXST | 2-0 | 3-3 | 71.7% | |
| 4 |  Sam HoustonSHSU | 2-1 | 5-2 | 7.8% | |
| T5 |  Louisiana TechLT | 1-2 | 2-4 | 0.4% | |
| T5 |  Florida InternationalFIU | 1-2 | 2-5 | 0.2% | |
| T5 |  Middle TennesseeMTSU | 1-2 | 2-5 | <0.1% | |
| T8 |  New Mexico StateNMSU | 1-3 | 2-5 | <0.1% | |
| T8 |  UTEPUTEP | 1-3 | 1-6 | - | |
| 10 |  Kennesaw StateKENN | 0-2 | 0-6 | 0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 71.7%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 70.8% (-0.9%) | 76.2% (+4.5%) | |
| 71.3% (-0.4%) | 73.0% (+1.3%) | |
| 71.4% (-0.3%) | 71.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 53.5% (-18.2%) | 72.5% (+0.8%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kennesaw StateFlorida InternationalUTEPJacksonville StateCCG: 78.7% • Scenario: 1.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Kennesaw StateJacksonville StateCCG: 76.8% • Scenario: 16.6%
Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST | 100% | 96.7% | 41.7% | 3.1% | 71.7% |
| LibertyLIB | 100% | 96.5% | 47.1% | 3.4% | 68.8% |
| Western KentuckyWKU | 100% | 95.3% | 35.4% | 3.0% | 51.0% |
| Sam HoustonSHSU | - | 96.5% | 30.2% | 0.8% | 7.8% |
| Louisiana TechLT | - | - | 80.2% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Florida InternationalFIU | - | - | 41.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Kennesaw StateKENN | - | - | 76.0% | 4.2% | 0.1% |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | - | - | 76.3% | 0.9% | <0.1% |
| New Mexico StateNMSU | - | - | - | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| UTEPUTEP | - | - | - | 0.1% | - |
Data from 2024-10-20
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville StateJXST(2-0) | 19.7% | 40.9% | 29.3% | 8.8% | 1.2% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | - | 6.7 |
| LibertyLIB(3-0) | 16.5% | 38.4% | 31.6% | 11.5% | 1.9% | <0.1% | - | - | - | 6.6 |
| Western KentuckyWKU(3-0) | 6.8% | 30.5% | 41.1% | 18.2% | 3.2% | 0.2% | - | - | - | 6.2 |
| Sam HoustonSHSU(2-1) | - | 2.3% | 17.5% | 38.3% | 30.6% | 10.2% | 1.1% | - | - | 4.7 |
| Florida InternationalFIU(1-2) | - | - | 0.3% | 5.4% | 23.7% | 39.2% | 25.7% | 5.8% | - | 3.0 |
| Louisiana TechLT(1-2) | - | - | 0.3% | 4.4% | 21.5% | 41.6% | 26.8% | 5.4% | - | 2.9 |
| UTEPUTEP(1-3) | - | - | - | 3.0% | 18.0% | 37.7% | 31.9% | 9.4% | - | 2.7 |
| New Mexico StateNMSU(1-3) | - | - | - | 1.8% | 14.6% | 36.5% | 35.4% | 11.7% | - | 2.6 |
| Middle TennesseeMTSU(1-2) | - | - | <0.1% | 1.1% | 11.2% | 33.5% | 39.1% | 15.0% | - | 2.4 |
| Kennesaw StateKENN(0-2) | - | - | 0.1% | 1.8% | 10.0% | 26.5% | 34.8% | 21.9% | 5.0% | 2.2 |
Data from 2024-10-20