Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
51.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L0-63 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W31-0 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | W49-21 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | W26-21 | |
| 5 | 9/28 | L20-21 | |
| 7 | 10/10 | W44-17 | |
| 8 | 10/16 | W31-14 | |
| 10 | 10/30 | Win prob:85% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:83% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:82% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:31% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:38% |
Data from 2024-10-20
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 6.8% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 30.5% | 95.3% |
| 6-2 | 41.1% | 35.4% |
| 5-3 | 18.2% | 3.0% |
| 4-4 | 3.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-10-20
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-10-20
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 49.4% (-1.6%) | 58.8% (+7.8%) | |
| 51.1% (+0.1%) | 50.6% (-0.4%) | |
| 51.2% (+0.2%) | 50.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 60.1% (+9.1%) | 50.6% (-0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Kennesaw State
Sam Houston
UTEP
Middle TennesseeCCG: 67.4% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Kennesaw StateCCG: 58.8% • Scenario: 17.3%
Data from 2024-10-20
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
6.8%Any 1 loss
95.3%
30.5%
100.0%
1.5%
100.0%
1.4%100.0%
1.2%
95.0%
11.1%
94.4%
15.3%Any 2 losses
35.4%
41.1%100.0%
0.3%99.6%
0.3%98.9%
0.3%75.3%
2.4%74.2%
2.0%72.8%
2.3%69.8%
3.0%69.4%
2.8%67.6%
3.2%10.3%
24.5%Data from 2024-10-20
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-10-20